Slovakia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Industry Update Quarter 3 2012

• Publication date: July 2012
• Report size: 89 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates BMI View: Despite the formation of new government in Slovakia, our contractionary outlook for the pharmaceutical industry has been maintained as key drug policy reforms passed by the legislature in September 2011 prior to the downfall of the previous government will still be in effect. Following the appointment of Zuzana Zvolenská as the new minister of health in April, there has been no sign she ...

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Despite the formation of new government in Slovakia, our contractionary outlook for the pharmaceutical industry has been maintained as key drug policy reforms passed by the legislature in September 2011 prior to the downfall of the previous government will still be in effect. Following the appointment of Zuzana Zvolenská as the new minister of health in April, there has been no sign she will significantly alter from this course, which is bad news for drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: Euros 1.72bn (US Dollar 2.45bn) in 2011 to Euros 1.65bn (US Dollar 2.28bn) in 2012; -3.9% in local currency terms and -7.3% in US dollar terms. Projection broadly unchanged since Q212.
- Healthcare: Euros 5.97bn (US Dollar 8.53bn) in 2011 to Euros 6.11bn (US Dollar 8.43bn) in 2012; +2.4% in local currency terms and -1.2% in US dollar terms. Historic data updated; projection slightly down from Q212.
- Medical devices: Euros 384mn (US Dollar 550mn) in 2011 to Euros 396mn (US Dollar 546) in 2012; +2.9% in local currency terms and -0.7% in US dollar terms. The 2011 industry data has been revised; projection slightly down from Q212.
Risk/Reward Rating: Slovakia’s Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score is stable in our latest analysis, with the challenges faced in the drug industry in 2012 already well factored into our assessment. Slovakia’s table position has improved in Q312, moving up to eighth from 10th out of the 20 industry s we assess in the region.

Key Trends And Developments
- We have maintained a contractionary outlook for Slovakia’s 2012 pharmaceutical industry since June 2011, when drug policy reforms emerged and were gathering sufficient political momentum to pass through the legislature. This view played out with the passage of key contractionary drug laws on medicines and healthcare assistance in mid-September, prior to the fall of Iveta Radi?ová’s government in early October. The legislation that has been in action since December 1 2011 is expected to result in price reductions for medicines to the second-lowest level in the EU, as well as allowing the prescription of generic equivalents by doctors and introducing customer loyalty programmes. Savings as a result of this legislation are expected to reach Euros 100mn, which will be redirected into other parts of public healthcare provision.
- Prime Minister Robert Fico wants to ban private health insurance companies from retaining or distributing profits. He has Zvolenská to find a way to introduce the ban without breaching the constitution. An attempt to impose the ban was first identified as unconstitutional during the first Fico government in 2007. A ban is expected to be supported by opposition parties as they made similar proposals during the last election campaign.

BMI Economic View:
A moderately robust export segment remains the solitary driver of economic expansion in Slovakia as high unemployment, tighter credit conditions and fiscal austerity drive private and government consumption towards contraction territory. Despite this, we highlight minor upside potential for our real Gross Domestic Product growth projection of 1.5% in 2012, if the export segment continues to hold ground.
BMI Political View: Despite numerous unfavourable comparisons in the media to Hungary’s Premier Viktor Orbán, we are taking a relatively favourable stance towards the Fico administration. We believe while fiscal risks remain, the country’s relationship with the eurozone will remain strong. Tax hikes aside, we do not anticipate any major deterioration in the Slovakian business environment.

Prescription Drug Industry in Slovakia (Slovak Republic)

Executive Summary . 5
Industry SWOT Analysis . 7
Slovakia Pharmaceuticals Industry Environment and Risk Analysis 7
Slovakia Political Environment and Risk Analysis 8
Slovakia Economic Environment and Risk Analysis . 8
Slovakia Business Environment SWOT .. 9
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings .. 10
Data : Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceutical Risk/Rewards Ratings, Q212 10
Rewards ... 11
Risks 12
Slovakia – Industry Summary .. 14
Regulatory Regime . 15
Intellectual Property Regime ... 16
Pricing Regime 17
Data : Indexed Price Build-Up For Prescription And Non-Prescription Medicines In Slovakia . 17
Reimbursement Regime 18
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments . 19
Pharmaceutical Promotion .. 22
Industry Trends And Developments 23
Epidemiology ... 23
Data : Main Causes Of Mortality And Morbidity In Slovakia.. 23
Healthcare Segment 24
Recent Healthcare Segment Developments . 25
Health Insurance . 25
Private Health Insurance . 26
Research & Development 26
Clinical Trials .. 27
Medical Device Industry 27
Data : EU Medical Devices Classifications . 28

Market Projection Scenario ... 30
Overall Industry Projection .. 30
Data : Pharmaceutical Sales, from 2008 to 2016 32
Key Growth Factors – Market 33
Data : Overall Healthcare Expenditure, from 2008 to 2016 34
Data : Governmental Healthcare Expenditure, from 2008 to 2016 . 35
Data : Private Healthcare Expenditure, from 2008 to 2016 35
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic ... 36
Data : Slovakia Economic Growth, from 2011 to 2016 ... 41
Prescription Drug Industry Projection . 42
Data : Prescription Drug Sales, from 2008 to 2016 43
Patented Drug Industry Projection .. 44
Data : Patented Drug Sales, from 2008 to 2016 .. 45
Generic Drug Industry Projection 46
Data : Generic Drug Sales, from 2008 to 2016 ... 47
OTC Medicine Industry Projection .. 48
Data : OTC Medicine Sales, from 2008 to 2016 .. 49
Data : OTC Medicine Sales Breakdown, from 2004 to 2009 ... 50
Pharmaceutical Trade Projection .. 51
Data : Pharmaceutical Trade, from 2008 to 2016 ... 53
Medical Device Industry Projection . 54
Data : Medical Device Sales, from 2008 to 2016 . 55
Other Healthcare Data Projections 56
Key Risks To BMI’s Projection Scenario 57

Competition Overview . 58
Pharmaceutical Market .. 58
Pharmaceutical Distribution 59
Company Profiles ... 62
Local Firms .. 62
Zentiva (Sanofi/Sicomed) . 62
Biotika . 65
HBM Pharma (formerly Hoechst-Biotika) ... 67
Imuna Pharma . 69
Multinational Firms .. 71
GlaxoSmithKline .. 71
Sanofi ... 72
Pfizer ... 74
Novartis ... 76
Merck & Co . 77
Roche ... 78
Demographic Outlook 79
Data : Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) ... 79
Data : Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) ... 81
Data : Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 ... 82
Data : Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 82
Glossary .. 83
BMI Methodology ... 85
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Market Projections 85
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 86
Ratings Overview . 86
Data : Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators ... 87
Weighting . 88
Data : Weighting Of Components 88
Sources 88

Prescription Drug in Slovakia (Slovak Republic)

Slovakia Prescription Drug Sales, Us$bn

• $ 250
• Industry data
• January 2013

Yearly, From 2004 To 2021
By Business Monitor International
Source: IMS Health, Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), BMI

• Industries : Prescription Drug
• Countries : Slovakia (slovak Republic)

Slovakia Prescription Drug Sales, Us$bn, 5 Year Trailing Cagr, %

• $ 250
• Industry data
• January 2013

Yearly, From January 01, 2012 To January 01, 2012
By Business Monitor International
Source: IMS Health, Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), BMI

• Industries : Prescription Drug
• Countries : Slovakia (slovak Republic)

Slovakia Prescription Drug Sales, Us$bn, 10 Year Forward Cagr, %

• $ 250
• Industry data
• January 2013

Yearly, From January 01, 2012 To January 01, 2012
By Business Monitor International
Source: IMS Health, Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), BMI

• Industries : Prescription Drug
• Countries : Slovakia (slovak Republic)

Slovakia Prescription Drug Sales, Us$bn, % Chg Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• January 2013

Yearly, From 2005 To 2021
By Business Monitor International
Source: IMS Health, Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), BMI

• Industries : Prescription Drug
• Countries : Slovakia (slovak Republic)

Slovakia Prescription Drug Sales, Eurbn, % Chg Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• January 2013

Yearly, From 2005 To 2021
By Business Monitor International
Source: IMS Health, Association of the European Self-Medication Industry (AESGP), BMI

• Industries : Prescription Drug
• Countries : Slovakia (slovak Republic)