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China Mining Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 120 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: China's mining sector will continue to be pressurised by low mineral prices over the comingyears. Government-led consolidation will support production growth by state-owned enterprises as smallerminers shut operations, however, depleting reserves, falling ore grades and the relatively short life span ofdomestic mines will further drive outward Chinese investment.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

-While cooling Chinese economic growth will adversely impact mining operations, we expect the impactto vary across different mineral segments. Copper and tin will do better due to the better price outlook forthese minerals than iron ore and coal.

-China's structural shortfall in domestic production combined with the government's desire for resourcesecurity will continue to spur overseas mining deals. Although China's reliance on imports will increasedue to the country's depleting reserves, falling ore grades and the relatively short life span of mines,outbound investment will face more caution, as Chinese projects are increasingly faced with rising costsand project delays. As a result, Chinese firms' 2015 mining merger and acquisition activity (M&A) inLatin America slowed to USD2.1bn, a 72.8% y-o-y decrease from 2014. Chinese mining M&A activityin the Middle East and Africa also fell significantly, by 46.0% y-o-y, to USD135mn in 2015. Chinesemetal investment in Sub Saharan Africa also dropped in 2015 to USD1.2bn, significantly lower thanUSD4.0bn in 2014 and USD8.4bn in 2013.

Table Of Contents

China Mining Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: China Mining Industry Value 7
Latest Updates and Structural Trends 7
Table: China - Mineral Round Up 8
Industry Forecast 12
China - 13th Five-Year Plan Signals Further Mining Consolidation 12
Bauxite: Imports To Remain Strong 17
Latest Developments 17
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 17
Structural Trends 17
Imports: Growth In Short Term And Long Term 18
Risks To Production Outlook 20
Coal: Government Consolidation To Hamper Growth 20
Latest Developments 20
Table: Coal Production Forecasts 20
Table: China - Select Coal Mining Projects 21
Structural Trends 22
Copper: Slow Growth Ahead 29
Latest Developments 29
Table: Copper Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 29
Table: China - Select Copper Projects 30
Structural Trends 32
Gold: Overseas Investment To Remain Strong 35
Table: Gold Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 35
Table: China - Overseas Gold Mining Deals 41
Iron Ore: Output To Decline, Imports To Slow 42
Latest Developments 42
Table: China Iron Ore Production Forecast 42
Table: China Iron Ore Projects 43
Structural Trends 44
Price Weakness To Hurt Miners 44
Small-Scale Miners To Come Under The Most Pressure 45
Strict Regulations To Increase Import Preference 46
Nickel: Weak Ore Production And Imports, Strong Refined Imports 48
Latest Developments 48
Table: Nickel Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 48
Table: China - Select Nickel Projects 49
Structural Trends 49
Further Consolidation 51
Risks To Outlook 51
Tin: Yunnan Tin To Support Growth 53
Latest Developments 53
Table: Tin Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 53
Table: China Selected Tin Projects 53
Structural Trends 53
Risks To Outlook 55
Lead: Stagnant Growth Ahead 56
Latest Developments 56
Table: Lead Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 56
Table: China - Select Lead Mining Projects 56
Structural Trends 57
Risks To Outlook 58
Zinc: Growth To Slow, Imports To Rise 59
Latest Developments 59
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (China 2012-2020) 59
Table: China - Select Zinc Projects 59
Structural Trends 60
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 64
Risk/Reward Index 64
Rewards 64
Industry Rewards 64
Country Rewards 64
Risks 64
Industry Risks 64
Country Risks 65
Asia Risk/Reward Index 65
Key Takeaways 65
Latest Revisions 66
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 67
Regulatory Development 68
Trade And Investment Risk Analysis 68
Commodities Forecast 72
Commodity Strategy 72
Ferrous Metals 72
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years 72
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices 74
Non-Ferrous Metals 77
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn 77
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade 79
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue 80
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth 81
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices 82
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead 83
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 85
Competitive Landscape 86
Majors Firms 87
Table: China - Key Financial Data For Select Listed Mining Companies 87
Company Profile 89
Jiangxi Copper 89
Table: Supply Chain Analysis 92
Table: Jiangxi Copper - Key Financial Data 92
Shandong Gold 94
Table: Supply Chain Analysis 96
Table: Shandong Gold - Key Financial Data 96
Global Company Strategy - Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - Q3 2016 98
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 100
Company Background 100
Table: Chalco - Key Financial Data 105
China Shenhua Energy 106
Table: Shenhua Energy - Supply Chain Analysis 108
Table: China Shenhua Energy - Key Financial Data 109
Regional Overview 110
Asia Overview 110
Slowing Iron Ore Production 110
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 111
China and India To Lead In Outbound Investment 112
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead 114
Chinese Coal and Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly 115
Methodology 117
Industry Forecast Methodology 117
Sources 118
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 119
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 120

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