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  4. > India Mining Report Q3 2016

India Mining Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: India's mining sector will experience solid growth, primarily boosted by the country's positivereforms and vast mineral reserves. Despite this, the sector will continue to face challenges due to thecountry's inadequate operating environment, mining royalties and low metals prices, which will preventIndia from reaching its full growth potential.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- India will continue to suffer from a persistent coal deficit over the coming years although the countrypossesses one of the world's largest coal reserves and has significant production growth potential. Weforecast India's coal output to grow from 753mn tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 1,014mnt in 2020, postingaverage annual growth of 7.6% during 2016-2020, a sizeable acceleration from an average growth of4.5% annually during 2011-2015. This is because the Indian government has made great progress inimproving coal mine production and coal offtake in recent quarters.

- We forecast India's iron ore output to grow from 132.9mnt in 2016 to 164.4mnt in 2020. This representsan average annual growth of 5.0% during 2016-2020, higher than the average contraction of 9.1% y-o-yover 2011-2015, following mining bans in the three largest iron-ore producing states of Goa, Odisha andKarnataka, which have since been lifted. Although the passing of the Mines & Minerals Developmentand Regulation Act will support India's iron ore output growth, weak iron ore prices will limit the sectorgrowth outlook. We forecast iron ore prices to average USD48.0/tonne over 2016-2020, significantlylower than USD115.0/tonne during 2011-2015. This is due to oversupply from Australian miners andweakened Chinese demand for iron ore.

Table Of Contents

India Mining Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: India - Mining Industry Value Forecast 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Bauxite: Government Support To Boost Growth 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Bauxite Production Forecast (India 2015-2020) 12
Table: India - Bauxite Projects 12
Structural Trends 12
Iron Ore: Removal Of Export Taxes To Revive Goan Shipments 16
Latest Developments 16
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (India 2012-2020) 16
Table: India - Selected Iron Ore Projects 17
Structural Trends 18
Zinc: Steady Growth Ahead 22
Latest Developments 22
Table: Zinc Production Forecast (India 2012-2020) 22
Table: India - Select Zinc Mining Projects 23
Structural Trends 23
Coal: Government Target To Fall Short 27
Latest Developments 27
Table: Coal Production Forecast (India 2014-2020) 27
Table: India - Select Coal Mine Projects 27
Structural Trends 28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 36
Risk/Reward Index 36
Rewards 36
Industry Rewards 36
Country Rewards 36
Risks 36
Industry Risks 36
Country Risks 37
Asia Risk/Reward Index 37
Key Takeaways 37
Latest Revisions 38
Table: Asia - Mining Risk/Reward Index 39
Regulatory Development 40
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 41
Commodities Forecast 45
Commodities Outlook 45
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 45
Competitive Landscape 46
Table: India - Select Listed Mining Companies 48
Company Profile 49
Coal India Ltd (CIL) 49
Table: Coal India Ltd - Key Financial Data 52
Hindustan Copper 53
Table: Hindustan Copper - Key Financial Data 56
NMDC 57
Table: NMDC - Key Financial Data 60
Global Company Strategy - Vedanta Resources - Q3 2016 61
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 63
Latest Financial Results 65
Company Strategy 66
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data 68
Regional Overview 69
Asia Overview 69
Slowing Iron Ore Production 69
Indian Coal Consumption To Outperform 70
China and India To Lead In Outbound Investment 71
Indonesian Ban Moderation Ahead 72
Chinese Coal and Steel Sectors To Consolidate Slowly 74
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sources 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 78

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ref:plp2016

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