Poland Insurance Report Q3 2009

Poland Insurance Report Q3 2009

This report was written in late May 2009. Relative to the Q209 report, the main changes pertain to the
profiles of companies ? both regional and predominantly local ? which have been updated considerably.
We have also included a brief overview of conditions ? and development of premium income ? through
Q109. This is based on comments made by major (mainly listed) companies which became available (for
the most part) from mid-May. We hope to build on this section in terms of detail.
As we explain, Q109 was in many ways a challenging but far from disastrous quarter for the major
protagonists in most markets. Notwithstanding the fact that particular non-life markets suffered as a result
of a slump in the number of cars registered, and correspondingly lower demand for compulsory third
party motor (CTPM) insurance and voluntary motor insurance, global non-life premiums generally held
up well in spite of the global economic downturn. In contrast, life premiums were, in most markets, lower
in Q109 than they had been in Q108. This was largely the result of the past volatility in global equity
markets, although there were also other problems. Conditions remain fair in the global reinsurance
market.
In terms of the major regions whose insurance markets are covered by BMI?s reports, Latin America and
the Middle East and North Africa stood out in terms of growth in premiums (in non-life insurance in
particular, but also in life insurance). Conditions were far more mixed in Central and Eastern Europe
(CEE) (particularly in non-life insurance, where the downturn in car registrations hit hard) and Asia
Pacific (where various factors caused slippage in life premiums in many markets).
Revision Of Data And Forecasts
We have updated the insurance data for 2008 ? and our forecasts for the next five years. In many cases,
preliminary or final figures for last year have been published by the regulator or the trade association. In
some cases, we have estimated figures for 2008, but on the basis of information that has been published in
relation to a significant portion of the year. In some cases though, we have based our 2008 estimate on
results disclosed by individual companies operating in the market in question.

Executive Summary ......5
The Sector At A Glance 6
Table: Overview Of Poland’s Insurance Sector........ 6
Key Insights On Poland’s Insurance Sector.... 6
SWOT Analysis....8
Poland Industry SWOT ..... 8
Poland Political SWOT..... 8
Poland Economic SWOT... 9
Poland Business Environment SWOT ... 9
Global Overview 10
Global Review Of Q109.. 10
The Global Financial Crisis ..... 14
Table: Selected European Countries: Budget And Current Account, 2008 (as % of GDP) . 17
Projections And Forecasts...21
Table: Insurance Data And Projections, 2006-2013......... 21
Projections And Drivers Of Growth.... 21
Table: Growth Drivers, 2006-2013..... 22
Country Update .23
Macroeconomic Trends .. 23
Table: Poland – Economic Activity, 2006-2013...... 24
Political Outlook... 25
Insurance Business Environment Rating 27
Table: Poland – Insurance Business Environment Indicators..... 27
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Insurance Business Environment Rankings ...... 28
Regional Context.........29
Table: Non-Life Premiums In A Regional Context, 2008.. 29
Table: Life Premiums In A Regional Context, 2008 30
Table: Comparison Of Major Lines As % Non-Life Premiums, 2006 .... 31
Major Players In Poland’s Insurance Sector .....32
Analysis Of Competitive Conditions........33
Regional Overview 33
Local Company Profiles .......35
Benefia........ 35
Europa........ 37
PZU .. 38
Regional Company Profiles ..39
AEGON....... 39
AIG... 41
Allianz......... 44
Aviva. 46
AXA... 48
Cardif 50
Ergo.. 52
Erste Group 54
Eureko ........ 55
Fortis 59
Generali...... 61
Grawe ......... 64
Groupama... 65
HDI-Gerling ......... 68
HSBC Insurance ... 71
ING... 73
KBC Group. 75
MetLife........ 77
Prudential Financial....... 79
QBE.. 80
RSA... 82
UNIQA........ 85
Vienna Insurance Group. 89
Zurich ......... 93
Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data.95
Section 1: Population...... 95
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030. 95
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 96
Section 2: Education And Healthcare. 96
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ... 96
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030....... 96
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ..... 97
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006... 97
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ... 97
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012... 98
Methodology......99
Basis Of Projections ....... 99
Insurance Business Environment Rating..... 100
Table: Insurance Business Environment Indicators And Rationale ..... 101
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ........ 102