Argentina Agribusiness Report Q3 2014

  • July 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 108 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: With an election on the horizon and a deteriorating economic environment, the Argentine grain sector will continued play centre stage over the medium term. With foreign reserves under pressure, grain exports (particularly soybean) will remain vital, but there is increasing evidence of hoarding, which could lead to clashes with the government over policy. Nonetheless, soybean will remain the pre-eminent crop in Argentina over the long term, and we expect the poultry production to show the most promise within the livestock complex. We see potential for a mild rebound in beef production, as sector fundamentals remain challenging despite a significant decrease in grain prices. The country's dairy sector shows relative promise, due to relatively high retail dairy prices and investment into the sector.

Key Trends
- Corn production growth to 2017/18: 10% to 26.4mn tonnes. Our revised growth projections stem from lower average corn prices in coming years along with more substitution to soybean plantings. Some of this growth will also be due to base effects.

Table Of Contents

Argentina Agribusiness Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Business Environment 12
Industry Forecast .. 14
Sugar Outlook . 14
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . 15
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . 15
Livestock Outlook .. 16
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 17
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 18
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 18
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . 19
Table: Argentina Pork Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 20
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . 20
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . 20
Soybean Outlook 22
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . 23
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . 26
Dairy Outlook . 27
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 28
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) 28
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 29
Table: Argentina Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 . 29
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . 31
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) 31
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . 31
Table: Argentina Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 . . 32
Grains Outlook .. 33
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) 34
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 34
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Argentina 2013-2018) 34
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) 37
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) . . 37
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Argentina 2008-2013) 37
Commodities Price Analysis 39
Monthly Grains Update . 39
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance and Forecasts 48
Monthly Softs Update . 49
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 58
Upstream Analysis 59
Americas Machinery Outlook 59
Table: Deere and Company - Agriculture and Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region 60
Americas GM Outlook 66
Americas Fertiliser Outlook .. 70
Downstream Analysis . 76
Food . 76
Food Consumption .. 76
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 . . 77
Canned Food 77
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 . 79
Confectionery 79
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 81
Oils and Fats .. 81
Table: Oils and Fats Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 . 82
Dairy . 85
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 . . 86
Drink 87
Hot Drinks . 87
Table: Coffee Value Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 . . 89
Table: Tea Value Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 . . 89
Alcoholic Drinks .. 90
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 91
Soft Drinks 91
Table: Soft Drink Value Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 . 93
Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 93
Mass Grocery Retail . 94
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 95
Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type . 95
Regional Overview 96
Competitive Landscape .. 102
Table: Key Agribusiness Companies 102
Demographic Forecast 103
Demographic Outlook . 103
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 104
Table: Argentina's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 105
Table: Argentina's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . . 106
Table: Argentina's Urban And Rural Population, 1990-2020 . . 106
Methodology .. 107
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 107
Sector-Specific Methodology 108

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