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Argentina Agribusiness Report Q3 2015

  • June 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 113 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
The Argentine grain sector will continue to play centre stage over the medium term amid a deteriorating economic environment. With foreign reserves under pressure, grain exports (particularly soybean) will remain vital, but there remains evidence of hoarding, which could lead to clashes with the government over policy. Nonetheless, soybean will remain the pre-eminent crop in Argentina over the long term and we expect poultry production to show the most promise within the livestock complex. We see potential for a mild rebound in beef production, as sector fundamentals remain challenging despite a significant decrease in grain prices. The country's dairy sector shows relative promise, due to high local retail prices and investment into the sector.


Key Forecasts
- Corn production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 7.1% to 26.8mn tonnes. Production growth will remain good despite a wide switch to soybean, as exports will be attractive due to the large sell off in the peso.
- Soybean production growth to 2018/19: 5.7% to 57.1mn tonnes. Growth will come from increasing export demand for soybeans along with more value-added products. Soybean crops are also generally less capital-intensive than corn crops due to lower input costs. However, lower prices over the next few years will reduce the area dedicated to soybean plantings. In terms of export markets, China will be a key destination of soybean exports as the country directs its focus towards the production of other major
crops.

Table Of Contents

Argentina Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Operational Risk . 11
Industry Forecast .. 13
Sugar Outlook .. 13
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) . 14
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Argentina 2009-2014) . 16
Livestock Outlook 16
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) . . 18
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) . . 18
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) . . 19
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Argentina 2009-2014) . . 20
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Argentina 2009-2014) . . 20
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Argentina 2009-2014) . . 21
Soybean Outlook . 21
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) . 23
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (Argentina 2009-2014) . 26
Dairy Outlook .. 27
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) . . 28
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) 28
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) . . 29
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) . 29
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Argentina 2009-2014) . . 31
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Argentina 2009-2014) 31
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Argentina 2009-2014) . . 31
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) . 32
Grains Outlook 33
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) 34
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) . . 34
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Argentina 2014-2019) 34
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Argentina 2009-2014) 38
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Argentina 2009-2014) . . 38
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Argentina 2009-2014) 39
Featured Analysis .. 40
Commodity Strategy 40
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops . . 40
Commodities Price Analysis 45
Monthly Softs Strategy 45
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 54
Monthly Grains Strategy 55
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 62
Upstream Analysis 63
Americas GM Outlook 63
Americas Machinery Outlook 69
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) . 72
Americas Fertiliser Outlook .. 77
Downstream Analysis . 83
Food .. 83
Food Consumption 83
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2011-2018) . . 84
Canned Food . 84
Table: Canned Food Value Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2011-2018) . 84
Confectionery . 85
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2011-2018) . 86
Oils and Fats 86
Table: Oils And Fats Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2011-2018) . . 86
Fish .. 89
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2018) 89
Dairy 89
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 90
Drink . 92
Hot Drinks .. 92
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 93
Alcoholic Drinks 94
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2011-2018) . 95
Soft Drinks .. 97
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production and Trade (Argentina 2013-2018) . . 98
Mass Grocery Retail .. 99
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2011-2018) . . 100
Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type 100
Regional Overview . 101
Competitive Landscape .. 106
Table: Key Agribusiness Companies 106
Demographic Forecast 107
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Argentina 1990-2025) . . 108
Table: Key Population Ratios (Argentina 1990-2025) 108
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Argentina 1990-2025) . . 109
Table: Population By Age Group (Argentina 1990-2025) 109
Table: Population By Age Group % (Argentina 1990-2025) 110
Methodology .. 112
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 112
Sector-Specific Methodology 113

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