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Argentina Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 75 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Grains production growth will outperform soybean over the next five years in Argentina due tothe major policy shift from the new government led by Mauricio Macri. Argentina will strengthen its shareof the export market in the grains and soybean segments over the next five years as a weak peso increasesthe country's competitiveness. Other sectors will strongly benefit from export opportunities, including beefand dairy products.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth from 2014/15 to 2019/20: 7.7% to 2.3mn tonnes. Sugar production willreceive a boost from the combination of an increased domestic ethanol-blending mandate as well asincreased competitiveness of Argentine sugar on the export market.

- Soybean production growth from 2014/15 to 2019/20: -10.4% to 55.0mn tonnes. Farmers have beenstraining their fields in recent years by continually planting soybeans, which will add to the incentive toturn to other crops. With export taxes on corn and wheat now significantly reduced by the newgovernment, this will amplify substitution away from soybeans.

- Soybean consumption growth from 2014/15 to 2019/20: 13.1% to 50.mn tonnes. A key driver will beexport demand for soybean oil (specifically from China) and soybean meal, which is an importantlivestock feed. The conversion from raw soybean to finished processed products is contributing to ourconsumption outlook.

- Corn production growth from 2014/15 to 2019/20: 23.8% to 35.5mn tonnes. In line with Macri'sreforms, corn's profitability has significantly improved, making the crop more attractive than soybean forArgentine farmers. Growing opportunities on the domestic and export markets will support strong outputgrowth out to 2020.

- 2016 real GDP growth: -0.6% (down from an estimated 2.0% in 2015).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 34.6% average (up from 26.7% in 2015).

Table Of Contents

Argentina Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Sugar Outlook 11
Table: Sugar - Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 13
Livestock Outlook 14
Table: Argentina - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 16
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 17
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 17
Soybean Outlook 18
Table: Soybean - Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 20
Dairy Outlook 21
Table: Argentina - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks To Outlook 22
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 23
Table: Butter Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 24
Table: Cheese Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 24
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 24
Grains Outlook 25
Table: Argentina Grains - Production and Consumption Outlook 26
Table: Risks To Outlook 26
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 30
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 30
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Argentina 2012-2020) 30
Commodities Price Analysis 31
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 31
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 31
Upstream Analysis 33
Americas GM Outlook 33
Americas Machinery Outlook 39
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 42
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 46
Downstream Analysis 52
Food 52
Latest Updates 52
Structural Trends 52
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 53
Table: Canned Food Value Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 53
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 55
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 59
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Argentina 2012-2019) 60
Regional Overview 61
Competitive Landscape 68
Table: Key Agribusiness Companies 68
Demographic Forecast 69
Demographic Outlook 69
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Argentina 1990-2025) 70
Table: Key Population Ratios (Argentina 1990-2025) 70
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Argentina 1990-2025) 71
Table: Population By Age Group (Argentina 1990-2025) 71
Table: Population By Age Group % (Argentina 1990-2025) 72
Methodology 74
Industry Forecast Methodology 74
Sector-Specific Methodology 75

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