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  4. > Brazil Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Brazil Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 90 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We believe that grains production growth over the next five years will slow relative to thepreceding five. Soybean production will outpace that of corn, as lower production costs for soybean relativeto corn will make the commodity more attractive to grow. However, we see comparatively limited growthout to 2019/20 given the scarcity of area available for expansion, as well as high import costs for fertilisers.We hold a more positive view on the sugar industry now than we have held in the past, due to reforms in theethanol sector. The eventual return of real weakness will be a net positive for the country's agriculturalsector.

Key Forecasts

- Soybean average production growth 2015/16 to 2019/20: 1.9% to 106.0mn tonnes. We see limitedgrowth out to 2019/20 given the scarcity of area available for expansion, as well as high import costs forfertilisers.

- Poultry average consumption growth to 2020: 3.6% to 11.1mn tonnes. Brazilian poultry consumptionwill outperform the country's general livestock complex over the coming years, particularly beef, whichwill suffer from the poor economic environment.

- Beef average production growth to 2019/20: 2.3% to 10.6mn tonnes. Beef production growth willstrengthen as more cattle come online and beef producers are induced to supply growing export markets.

- Milk average production growth to 2019/20: 4.1% to 41.9mn tonnes. Efficiency gains in the sectorand growing export opportunities will boost output.

- 2016 real GDP growth: -4.0% (down from -3.8% in 2015, forecast to average 0.1% from 2016 to 2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 9.0% average (same as 2015).

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 0.4% y-o-y increase to USD222.7bn in 2016, forecast toincrease by an average of 3.6% annually between 2015/16 and 2019/20.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Sugar Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Brazil - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 13
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Brazil 2010-2020) 15
Grains Outlook 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: Brazil - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks To Outlook 16
Structural Trends 17
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2020) 19
Cocoa Outlook 21
Latest Updates 21
Table: Brazil - Cocoa Production and Consumption Outlook 21
Table: Risks To Outlook 21
Structural Trends 22
Table: Cocoa Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2020) 25
Dairy Outlook 26
Latest Updates 26
Table: Brazil - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 26
Table: Risks To Outlook 26
Structural Trends 27
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2020) 29
Coffee Outlook 31
Latest Updates 31
Table: Brazil - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 31
Table: Risks To Outlook 31
Structural Trends 32
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2020) 34
Livestock Outlook 35
Latest Updates 35
Table: Brazil - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 35
Table: Risks To Outlook 35
Structural Trends 36
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Brazil 2012-2020) 39
Cotton Outlook 40
Latest Updates 40
Table: Brazil - Cotton Production and Consumption Outlook 40
Table: Risks To Outlook 40
Structural Trends 41
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2020) 44
Soybean Outlook 45
Latest Updates 45
Table: Brazil - Soybean Production and Consumption Outlook 45
Table: Risks To Outlook 45
Structural Trends 46
Table: Soybean Production and Consumption (Brazil 2011-2020) 48
Commodities Price Analysis 49
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 49
Table: SELECT COMMODITIES - PERFORMANCE AND BMI FORECASTS 49
Upstream Analysis 51
Americas Machinery Outlook 51
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 54
Americas GM Outlook 58
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 64
Downstream Analysis 71
Food 71
Latest Updates 71
Structural Trends 72
Table: Food Sales (Brazil 2013-2020) 74
Regional Overview 76
Competitive Landscape 83
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 83
Demographic Forecast 84
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Brazil 1990-2025) 85
Table: Key Population Ratios (Brazil 1990-2025) 85
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Brazil 1990-2025) 86
Table: Population By Age Group (Brazil 1990-2025) 86
Table: Population By Age Group % (Brazil 1990-2025) 87
Methodology 89
Industry Forecast Methodology 89
Sector-Specific Methodology 90

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