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  5. > Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 73 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have made some minor forecast adjustments in our Q3 2016 Mexican agribusiness reportupdate. We retain our positive outlook for various segments of the industry till then end of our forecastperiod in 2020. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years but we foresee positivetrends in domestic production and consumption of the dairy sector, livestock sector and coffee segment. Wehold a subdued forecast for the grains market due to corn production volatility this year as the crop isexpected to decline by over 5% in terms of yield. Rising per capita disposable incomes will continue todeliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexicanagricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.Key Forecasts

- We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by7.8% in 2015/16 to reach 24.0mn tonnes.Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period.

Cornconsumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates of under 1% to 2020.

- We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork productionoutpacing poultry and beef and veal. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork whereashigher cost will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.

- The Mexican dairy sector will expand in terms of production in 2016 with domestic cheese demand andsupply outpacing growth in liquid milk and butter sectors.

- Rising per capital incomes and discretionary spending powers will boost food consumption in 2016 andbeyond, over the course of our forecast period.

Table Of Contents

Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Livestock Outlook 11
Table: Mexico Livestock Production, Consumption and Trade Outlook 12
Table: Risks to Outlook 13
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 14
Sugar Outlook 16
Table: Mexico - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks to Outlook 17
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020) 19
Coffee Outlook 20
Table: Mexico Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 20
Table: Risks to Outlook 21
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Mexico 2012-2020) 22
Dairy Outlook 23
Table: Mexico Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 24
Table: Risks to Outlook 24
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 26
Grains Outlook 27
Table: Mexico Production and Consumption Outlook 28
Table: Risks to Outlook 29
Table: Grain Production and Consumption (Mexico 2013-2020) 31
Commodities Price Analysis 32
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 32
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 32
Upstream Analysis 34
Americas GM Outlook 34
Americas Machinery Outlook 41
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 44
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 48
Downstream Analysis 54
Food 54
Latest Updates 54
Structural Trends 55
Table: Food Sales (Mexico 2013-2020) 56
Regional Overview 59
Competitive Landscape 66
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 66
Demographic Forecast 67
Demographic Outlook 67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025) 68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025) 68
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025) 70
Methodology 72
Industry Forecast Methodology 72
Sector-Specific Methodology 73

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