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Zimbabwe Mining Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 52 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Zimbabwe's mining industry will grow steadily in absolute terms over our forecast periodthrough to 2020 as production increases across the key platinum and diamond mining sub-sectors.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- Zimbabwe is richly endowed with deposits of chrome, gold, nickel, diamonds and platinum, among otherminerals. Its gold reserves are among the largest in Africa, while it has the world's second-largestplatinum reserves. Diamond reserves are measured to be the second-largest globally after Russia.Development in these key markets together with a gradual more stable political and economic climate hasseen the country's status as major global producers strengthen in recent years. In terms of overall output,Zimbabwe is challenging the world's largest platinum producers, Russia and South Africa, while a recentreduction in taxes for smaller gold miners will see production rise at almost a double-digit rate this year.

- The mining sector will nevertheless face increasing challenges to its current growth trend, however.Political and economic risk remains a particular concern from both a regulatory and investment point ofview and the ZANU-PF will continue to spell trouble for the future of the industry.

- The changing regulatory environment surrounding Zimbabwe's diamond mining industry is likely tocreate challenges as well as opportunities for diamond production over the next few years.

- Since February 2016, relationships between Zimbabwe and China have deteriorated following theZimbabwean government's decision to remove Chinese companies from the Chiadzwa diamond fields. InFebruary 2016, the country's mines minister Walter Chidhakwa cancelled existing mining licences of anumber of companies by stating that their licences had expired. As a result, Anjin Investments, a jointdiamond mining venture between China's Anhui Foreign Economic Construction Company Limitedand the Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation, has taken the Zimbabwean government to courtto challenge the decision.

- We forecast Zimbabwe to experience a temporary boost in gold production this year as the impact of arecent reduction in gold mining levies leads to an increase in activity by smaller mining firms.Zimbabwe's gold production rose by 25% during Q115 to 4,180kg, according to the country's Chamber ofMines. We forecast output growth to expand by 4.0% annually during 2016-2020, with output growingfrom 0.61mn ounces (moz) in 2016 to 0.70moz by 2020. Despite this growth trend, Zimbabwe willremain a relatively minor gold producer on a regional level, with the majority of production continuing tocome from artisanal and small-scale producers. At present, the country is significantly behind Africa'slargest gold producers, South Africa, Ghana and the DRC in terms of its total output.

Table Of Contents

Zimbabwe Mining Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Zimbabwe Mining Industry Value 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Platinum: Growth To Remain Positive 11
Latest Developments 11
Table: Platinum Production (Zimbabwe 2014-2020) 11
Table: Zimbabwe - Major Platinum Projects 11
Structural Trends 12
Refinery Decision Finally Made 13
Gold: Juniors To Support Output 15
Latest Developments 15
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Zimbabwe 2012-2020) 15
Table: Key Gold Projects In Zimbabwe 15
Structural Trends 16
Diamonds: Significant Growth Potential, Despite Unfavourable Environment 18
Latest Developments 18
Table: Diamond Production (Zimbabwe 2012-2020) 19
Structural Trends 20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 22
Zimbabwe - Risk/Reward Index 22
Rewards 22
Industry Rewards 22
Country Rewards 22
Risks 22
Industry Risks 22
Country Risks 22
Africa - Risk/Reward Index 23
Key Takeaways 23
Latest Revisions 24
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index 25
Regulatory Development 26
Regulatory Underperformance 26
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 27
Commodities Forecast 31
Commodities Outlook 31
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 31
Competitive Landscape 32
Table: Southern Africa - Largest Listed Mining Companies 33
Company Profile 35
Global Company Strategy - Impala Platinum - Q3 2016 35
Company Strategy 37
Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data 40
Regional Overview 41
Sub-Saharan Africa Overview 41
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector 47
Methodology 49
Industry Forecast Methodology 49
Sources 50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 52

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