Australia Metals Report Q3 2014

  • April 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 59 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

We expect subdued growth in both production and consumption of most metals in Australia as
a weakening global commodity market continues to take its toll on the economy. While significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will be insufficient to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remains weak.

The slowdown in the metals industry in Australia is best exemplified by monthly crude steel production, which has continued to slide into negative territory following growth in 2013. Weak demand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine Australia's steel industry in 2014. We do not expect crude to approach pre-crisis levels for many years. The country's two dominant steel producers, BlueScope Steel Ltd and Arrium Ltd (previously known as OneSteel Ltd), have embarked on a series of consolidation plans and restructuring programmes aimed at reducing operating costs and curbing overcapacity amid an environment of weak demand and declining steel prices.

Table Of Contents

Australia Metals Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View 7
Metals SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate 11
Table: Steel Production and Consumption (Australia 2010-2018) 15
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Australia 2005-2012) 15
Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2017 16
Table: Aluminium Production and Consumption (Australia 2010-2018) 19
Zinc: Output Growth Heading Towards Negative Territory 19
Table: Refined Zinc Production, Consumption and Balance (Australia 2010-2018) 23
Regulatory Development 24
Tax Regime 24
Table: Australia - Political Summary 25
Commodities Forecast 26
Commodity Strategy 26
Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will 26
Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices 28
Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak 29
Copper: All Eyes On China 30
Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers 31
Nickel: Monthly Outperformer 33
Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field 34
Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely 35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 36
Steel Price Forecast 37
Table: BMI Steel Forecast 37
Short-Term Outlook 37
Core View 37
Global Steel Glut To Persist 38
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term 39
Consumption: Growth Decelerating 40
Excessive Chinese Exports 42
Growing Arbitrage Between East and West 42
Risks To Price Outlook 43
Table: Steel Data and Forecasts 44
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region and Product, US$/tonne (ave) 45
Competitive Landscape 46
Table: Australia - Largest Listed Metal Producers 47
Company Profile 48
Arrium 48
Table: Arrium Ltd - Financial Data 52
Rio Tinto 53
Company Overview 55
Company Strategy 56
Latest Financial Results 57
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data 58
Methodology 59
Cross Checks 59

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