Australia Metals Industry Update Quarter 3 2012

  • April 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 59 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Across all types of metals, we expect subdued growth in both production and consumption in Australia as the effects of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and in other key economies takes its toll on Australia's commodity driven economy. Our macroeconomic outlook for the Australian and Chinese economies has been tempered somewhat following both deteriorating trading conditions as well as slower growth following monetary tightening cycles over the past few quarters. The recent bout of loosening measures might not be enough to stem the slowdown. For some metals we projection only a weak recovery in 2012.
The slowdown in the metals market in the country is best exemplified by the 12.2% decline in 2011 steel production taking it back to an annual output that is the second lowest over the past decade (eclipsed only by the financial crisis). Steel industry players in Australia will continue to face substantial difficulties given the combined effects of still elevated raw material prices and declining steel prices.
The majority of Australia's refined metal output is for export, with Asia and particularly China accounting for the largest share. We therefore assign downside risks to our projections on the back of an expected slowdown in Asia's economic growth in 2011 and 2012. Moreover, domestic demand for Australia's refined metal production is dependent on the country's economic growth rate, and we projection modest growth until 2016, as the economy gradually recovers from recession. However, any reduction in the growth rate would have a detrimental effect on the consumption of metals.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
Industry SWOT Analysis . 6
Australia Business Environment SWOT . 6
World Overview ... 7
Data : BMI's Steel Projections . 7
Data : Steel Products And Inputs - Price Data ... 11
Commodity Strategy - Monthly Metals Update . 12
Copper To Edge Lower 12
Aluminium: No Sustained Recovery Ahead .. 13
Oil: Prices To Pull Back .. 14
Gold: Still Bullish 15

Market Projection s . 16
Steel: Output To Recover Slowly From 2012 16
Data : Australia's Steel Market ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) .. 20
Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2016 21
Data : Australia's Aluminium Production and Consumption .. 23
Nickel: Future Is In Laterite . 23
Data : Australia's Refined Nickel Production and Consumption 24
Zinc: Slight Growth In Supply And Demand . 25
Data : Australia's Refined Zinc Production and Consumption ... 26
Lead: Short-Term Rebound In Supply And Demand . 26
Data : Australia's Refined Lead Production and Consumption .. 28

Macroeconomic Data ... 28
Staring Recession In The Face . 28
Data : Australia - Economic Activity, from 2011 to 2016 ... 31
Commodities Projection ... 32
Monthly Metals Update . 32
Copper To Edge Lower 32
Aluminium: No Sustained Recovery Ahead .. 33
Oil: Prices To Pull Back .. 34
Gold: Still Bullish 35

Competition Overview . 36
Data : Australia - Comparative Metrics.. 37
Regulatory Development ... 38

Environment Overview Analysis .. 41
Data : Asia Mining Risk-Reward Ratings 41
Company Profiles ... 45
Rio Tinto .. 45
Data : Rio Tinto's Key Financial Data 48
Alcoa 49
Financial Data . 52
Data : Alcoa's Key Financial Data .. 52
BlueScope Steel 53
Data : Bluescope Steel - Financial Results . 56
OneSteel ... 57
Data : OneSteel - Financial Results 60
Demographic Outlook 61
Data : Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 62
Data : Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 63
Data : Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 64
Data : Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ... 64
BMI Methodology ... 65
How We Generate Our Market Projections .. 65
Cross Checks ... 65

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