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Brazil Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 72 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Brazil's construction industry will remain in recession in 2016 and return only to weak growthin 2017. Major structural changes to infrastructure policies under interim President Michel Temer have thepotential to improve the investment environment over the multi-year horizon, however, for 2016-2017 itcreates greater uncertainty and will limit construction activity.Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We have downgraded our construction industry value real growth forecast for 2016, with the industrynow expected to contract by 3.4%. A 6.2% contraction was reported for Q1 2016, while employment inthe sector continues to fall in 2016, down 13% y-o-y in Q1 2016, following a 10% fall in 2015. Withlimited visibility over new infrastructure concessions plans, we are cautious toward any potentialrecovery in 2017 and have therefore downgraded our forecast to 1.2% (from 2.2%), driven primarily bybase effects following three years of recession in the industry.

- Interim President Michel Temer's infrastructure plans remain light on details and therefore we aremaintaining our forecast over the coming several years at 1.7% on average between2018 and 2025.Temer has dissolved the Workers' Party's policies which have guided infrastructure investment over thepast decade, including the PAC and the transport concessions programme (known most recently as theLogistics Investment Programme (PIL)), and is auditing the Minha Casa Minha Vida low income housingprogramme. With limited detail on what the future plans will look like beyond the high level details ofthe Investment Partnership Programme (IPP) we are holding our outlook.

- Addressing constrained domestic capacity and weak international investor sentiment will be crucial forthe success of President Temer's new infrastructure plans. It will take several months for new regulationsto be worked out and then several more months for tenders to take place, at which point Temer would benearing the end of his two-year term. As a result, we anticipate limited short-term positive implicationsfrom the restructuring - particularly on jobs and growth, whilst noting that it is necessary in order tosupport a multi-year recovery in the market.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Infrastructure Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Brazil Construction Industry Forecast 8
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Brazil 2016) 8
SWOT 9
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 12
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Brazil 10-Year Construction Industry Forecast 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Investment Partnership Programme (PPI) Versus Logistics Investment Programme (IPL) 15
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: Brazil 10-Year Transport Infrastructure Industry Forecast 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Investment Partnership Programme (PPI) Versus Logistics Investment Programme (IPL) 20
Table: Transport Projects 23
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 24
Latest Updates 24
Table: Brazil 10-Year Energy and Utilities Industry Forecast 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Energy and Utilities Projects 32
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 33
Latest Updates 33
Table: Brazil 10 Year Residential and Non-Residential Industry Forecast 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Key Projects 43
Industry Risk Reward Index 44
Brazil - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 44
Risk/Reward Index 44
Rewards 44
Risks 45
Latin America Industry Risk/Reward Index 47
Table: Latin America Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 54
Market Overview 55
Competitive Landscape 55
Table: Key Company Financials 57
Company Profile 59
Odebrecht 59
Table: Odebrecht Financial Data 63
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Sector-Specific Methodology 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 70
Sector-Specific Methodology 71
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 71
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 72

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