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  5. > Russia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Russia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 131 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Oil production continues to outperform as a weak rouble allows for maintained capex andlower operating costs. Gas production, which underperformed in 2015, will improve as domestic andforeign demand pick up.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Russia's oil & gas sector are:

- Crude and condensate production averaged 10.9mn b/d in Q116, up from 10.7mn b/d in Q115. Weforecast production to increase from 2015 and remain largely flat to 2018.

- Gas production was flat in 2015 (635bcm) and remains on par with 2015 output in Q116.

- The finance minister expects oil export duty to drop to the planned 30% in 2017, from 42% currently.

- Refined fuels consumption fell heavily in 2015 given the recession, and is expected to be weak in 2016.This will allow for increased exports, particularly diesel.

- Refinery upgrades to Euro-V standards are now complete among major refiners. Euro-V standards aredue to be implemented nationwide from August 1 2016.

- Mineral extraction tax for non-liquefied gas exporters (or Gazprom) will increase in 2016, generatingaround RUB100bn (USD1.62bn) for the government.

Table Of Contents

Russia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Upstream Projects 12
Table: Russia - Major Upstream Projects 12
Upstream Production - Oil 48
Latest Updates 48
Structural Trends 48
Table: Russia Oil Commitments To China 50
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2014-2019) 52
Table: Oil Production (Russia 2020-2025) 52
Upstream Production - Gas 53
Latest Updates 53
Structural Trends 53
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2014-2019) 57
Table: Gas Production (Russia 2020-2025) 57
Refining 58
Latest Updates 58
Structural Trends 58
Table: Major Refinery Upgrades Completed And Underdevelopment 60
Table: Crude And Fuel Export Duty Changes Now Frozen At 2015 Levels 61
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2014-2019) 62
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Russia 2020-2025) 62
Refined Fuels Consumption 63
Latest Updates 63
Structural Trends 63
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Russia 2014-2019) 65
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Russia 2020-2025) 65
Gas Consumption 66
Latest Updates 66
Structural Trends 66
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2014-2019) 68
Table: Gas Consumption (Russia 2020-2025) 68
Trade - Oil 69
Latest Updates 69
Structural Trends: Crude Oil Trade 69
Table: Russia - Oil Commitments To China 71
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2014-2020) 71
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) 72
Structural Trends: Refined Products Trade 72
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019) 74
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) 75
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 75
Latest Updates 75
Structural Trends 75
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2014-2019) 79
Table: Gas Net Exports (Russia 2020-2025) 80
Industry Risk/Reward Index 81
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 81
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 81
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 82
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 82
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 85
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 85
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 87
Russia Risk/Reward Index 89
Upstream Index - Rewards 89
Upstream Index - Risks 89
Downstream Index - Overview 90
Market Overview 91
Russia Energy Market Overview 91
Regulatory Structure 91
Fiscal Regime 91
Table: Export Duty 93
Licensing Regime 94
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 96
Oil Refineries 96
Table: Major Refineries - Russia 96
Table: Russian Refinery Upgrades 98
Oil Terminals/Ports 98
Table: Russian Oil Ports 98
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 98
Table: Current And Proposed LNG Terminals 98
LNG Import Terminal 99
Planned Oil and Gas Pipelines 100
Table: Major Proposed International Pipelines 100
Competitive Landscape 101
Table: Russian Refining Capacity By Player 102
Company Profile 103
Gazprom 103
Table: Major Current Assets 104
Table: Over 200bcm Of Future Growth Assets 105
Table: Gazprom - Key Financial Data 105
Rosneft 106
Table: Major Assets 107
Table: Rosneft Revenues and EBITDA RUB bn 108
Lukoil 110
Table: Major Assets 111
Table: Key Financial Data 112
Novatek 113
Table: Major Assets 114
Table: Novatek - Key Financial Data 115
Regional Overview 116
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 116
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 116
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 117
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 118
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 119
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 120
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 121
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 122
Glossary 124
Table: Glossary Of Terms 124
Methodology 126
Industry Forecast Methodology 126
Source 128
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 128
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 130
Table: Weighting 131

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