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Zambia Mining Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 58 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Zambia's mining royalty reversal will support the sector's investment outlook. However, bothlow copper and coal prices and the country's high degree of mineral policy uncertainty will continue tolimit the sector's production growth until the country's Presidential elections in 2016.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- The country's political uncertainty will continue to play a big role in whether future investment willmaterialize. For instance, over the first six months of 2015, the mining code was adjusted three times,increasing uncertainty among existing and potential long-term investors in the sector. In our view, minerswill become increasingly concerned about the uncertain political climate and will limit or halt newprojects from coming online altogether.

- On April 4, 2016, Glencore stated the firm's intention to invest over USD1.1 billion in the firm's Mopanimine in order to develop three copper mine shafts that, with new technology, will extend mine life byover 25 years. Although this investment is positive news for the country's copper sector, it will not affectproduction levels out to our forecast period to 2020, as the mines will come into operation by 2023.Previously, on September 7 2015, Glencore announced that the company will immediately suspend thefirm's Mopani copper mining operation located in Zambia. This will significantly hurt the sector's outputgrowth, as the firm's Mopani mine accounted for 15.1% of the country's total copper production in 2014.

- In February 2016, the Zambian government cut power rates for mining companies by 26% in an effort topersuade companies to invest in power generation. Despite this, power shortages will continue to pose asignificant challenge for miners within the country.

- We have revised down our thermal coal price forecast as the multi-year demand outlook is less positivethan we had previously anticipated. We now forecast an average of USD51.0/tonne and USD52.0/tonnein 2016 and 2017, respectively (see: 'Thermal Coal: Lower Forecasts On China Revisions', March 10).

- Nava Bharat Ventures Ltd (Nava Bharat), Zambia's largest coal producer, will be the sector's keygrowth driver through the firm's Maamba project, the country's largest coal mine. Zambia's coal outputwill increase from 470,000 tonnes in 2015 to 635,000 tonnes in 2020, primarily due to a combination ofgrowing output at the Maamba mine and the state-run Collum mine.

Table Of Contents

Zambia Mining Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Zambia Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020) 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
Industry Forecast 9
Copper: Major Challenges Ahead 9
Latest Developments 9
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Zambia 2012-2020) 10
Table: Zambia - Major New Copper Projects/ Expansions 10
Structural Trends 11
Table: Zambia: Hydropower Projects 17
Coal: Sold Growth, Despite Weak Project Pipeline 19
Latest Developments 19
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Zambia 2012-2020) 19
Table: Zambia - Coal Projects 20
Structural Trends 20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24
Zambia Risk/Reward Index 24
Rewards 24
Risks 24
Africa - Risk/Reward Index 25
Key Takeaways 25
Latest Revisions 26
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index 27
Regulatory Development 28
Zambia- Regulatory Development- Policy Uncertainty To Curb Growth 28
Table: Zambia - Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 31
Commodities Forecast 32
Commodities Outlook 32
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 32
Competitive Landscape 33
Table: Zambia Key Players - Comparative Valuation Metrics 34
Company Profile 35
Global Company Strategy - Vedanta Resources - Q3 2016 35
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 37
Latest Financial Results 39
Company Strategy 40
Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data 42
First Quantum - Q3 2016 43
Latest Results 46
Table: First Quantum - Key Financial Data 47
Regional Overview 48
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector 53
Methodology 55
Industry Forecast Methodology 55
Sources 56
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 58

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