India Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2014

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 149 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)'s decision to list India as a Priority Foreign Country illustrates pharmaceutical companies' escalating discontentment with the country due to a series of patent disrespect issues. We maintain that low government spending on healthcare is the root of the problem, as it limits patients' access to services. However, we do not expect the situation to improve in the near term, and the affordability of patented pharmaceuticals will remain an issue between the US and India.


Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: INR904.0bn (USD15.4bn) in 2013 to INR1,000.6bn (USD17.3bn) in 2014; +10.7% in local currency terms and +11.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with previous quarter. Healthcare: INR4,523.5bn (USD77.2bn) in 2013 to INR5,043.1bn (USD87.0bn) in 2014; +11.5% in local currency terms and 12.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast upgraded due to receipt of historic data from the World Health Organization.

Table Of Contents

India Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT 9
Political . 11
Economic ... 13
Business Environment .. 15
Industry Forecast .. 17
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 17
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018) . . . . 18
Healthcare Market Forecast .. 18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018) . . . 21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018) . . . . 22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018) 23
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 23
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018) . . 25
Patented Drug Market Forecast . 26
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018) . 28
Generic Drug Market Forecast .. 29
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018) . 30
OTC Medicine Market Forecast . 31
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (India 2010-2018) . . . . 32
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast . 32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (India 2012-2018) 34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (India 2012-2018) . . . . 34
Other Healthcare Data . 35
Macroeconomic Forecasts ... 36
Economic Analysis ... 36
Downgrade Due To Significant Pull-Back In Capital Spending ... 37
Waning Private Consumption Growth Poses Further Downside Risks .. 38
Not All Gloom: Data Could Boost BJP's Position . 38
Table: India - Economic Activity . . . . 40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 41
Asia Risk/Reward Ratings . 41
India Risk/Reward Ratings 47
Rewards ... 47
Risks 47
Market Overview ... 48
Industry Trends And Developments 49
Epidemiology 49
Table: Leading Causes Of Death In India (2008) . 50
Healthcare Sector .. 51
Healthcare Sector Developments ... 53
Healthcare Insurance .. 57
Research and Development 58
Table: RandD Expenditure* In Top 20 Indian Pharmaceutical Firms (By Market Capitalisation) (USDmn) . . 59
Clinical Trials ... 60
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ... 63
Biosimilars ... 68
Table: List Of Selected Biosimilars Developed By Indian Pharmaceutical Firms . . . . 70
Traditional Medicines . 72
Regulatory Development .. 73
Pharmaceutical Advertising . 75
Pharmacovigilance . 76
Intellectual Property Regime 77
Table: History Of The Indian Patent System . . 78
Table: A Series Of Setbacks For Innovative Pharmaceutical Firms . . . 79
Pricing Policy ... 82
Compulsory Licences .. 85
Competitive Landscape 86
Pharmaceutical Sector 86
Key Industry Developments .. 89
Domestic Industry .. 96
Pharmaceutical Distribution 98
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector ... 99
Company Profile .. 100
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories 100
Cipla ... 105
Ranbaxy Laboratories 109
Aurobindo Pharmaceutical .. 115
Pfizer .. 119
GlaxoSmithKline ... 123
Novartis ... 128
Sanofi India .. 132
Merck and Co .. 135
Demographic Forecast ... 139
Demographic Outlook 139
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 140
Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . . . 141
Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 142
Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . . . 142
Glossary ... 143
Methodology 145
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 145
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model ... 145
Notes On Methodology .. 146
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 147
Ratings Overview . 148
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators . . . . 148
Indicator Weightings 149

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