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Israel Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 77 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: A lasting agreement and successful implementation of Israel's new offshore gas framework iscrucial for the development of the country's prospective gas industry over the coming decade. While recentapproval of the revised gas plan is a positive step, we remain cautious with our forecasts due to strongopposition to the contentious stabilisation clause within the country.Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- On 22 May 2016, Israel's government approved the revised stabilisation clause in the country's offshoregas plan, after it had been rejected by the Supreme Court in March 2016. While this is a positive step, weremain cautious with our forecasts due to strong opposition to this deal within the country.

- In late May 2016, the partners at Israel's Leviathan gas field signed an agreement to supply natural gasfrom the Leviathan field to a power facility controlled by IPM Be'er in central Israel. The USD3bnagreement sees gas deliveries amounting to 13bcm during a period of 18 years.

- In May 2016, local oil and gas company Israel Opportunity reported that its Hatrurim license couldcontain between 7-11mn bbl of oil.

- Noble Energy is reportedly negotiating the sale of 11% stake in the Tamar gas field to three Israelicompanies - Clal Insurance, Harel Insurance and Finance and Menora Mivtachim. Currently, NobleEnergy holds 36% interest in the field. The estimated value of the deal - approximately USD1.0bn.

- We forecast Israel's current refining capacity to remain stable at 297,000b/d until 2025. Gradually risingoil prices and increasing regional competition in the refining sector will push Israel's refined productsoutput slightly lower during our forecast period. Production is set to decline from an estimated 292,660b/d in 2015 to around 277,000b/d in 2025.

- We forecast Israel's gas consumption to increase by more than 40% over the coming decade, rising from8.7bcm in 2015 to 12.3bcm in 2025. An upside to our forecasts comes from the increased usage of gas intransportation and power sectors.

Table Of Contents

Israel Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Israel 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Israel 14
Upstream Production - Oil 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2014-2019) 19
Table: Oil Production (Israel 2020-2025) 19
Upstream Production - Gas 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Tamar Project Gas Sales Agreements 22
Table: Letters Of Intent To Supply Leviathan Gas 23
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2014-2019) 24
Table: Gas Production (Israel 2020-2025) 24
Refining 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Israel 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Israel 2020-2025) 27
Refined Fuel Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Israel 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Israel 2020-2025) 30
Gas Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Israel 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Oil 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Crude Oil Trade Outlook 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2014-2020) 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025) 36
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Leviathan Export Possibilities 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2014-2019) 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Israel 2020-2025) 42
Industry Risk Reward Index 43
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 44
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 46
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Israel - Risk/Reward Index 49
Market Overview 51
Israel Energy Market Overview 51
Regulatory Structure 51
Fiscal Regime 51
Table: Key Petroleum Taxes 51
Licensing Regime 52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 52
Oil Refineries 52
Table: Israel - Refineries 53
Oil Pipelines 53
Table: 750km Of Pipelines 53
Oil Terminals 54
Table: 37mn Cubic Metres Of Storage Capacity 54
Gas Storage 54
Gas Pipelines 55
Competitive Landscape 56
Table: Key Players - Israeli Oil And Gas Sector 57
Table: Key Downstream Players 58
Company Profile 59
Noble Energy 59
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Israel 60
Regional Overview 61
Middle East Oil and Gas Regional Overview 61
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging 61
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth 63
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 and March 2016 (Usd/Litre) 63
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market 65
Gas Production: In Need Of More Gas 66
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 68
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade 69
Glossary 70
Table: Glossary Of Terms 70
Methodology 72
Industry Forecast Methodology 72
Source 74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 74
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 76
Table: Weighting 77

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