LTE Business Strategy 2013

  • June 2013
  • -
  • Mind Commerce Publishing
  • -
  • 167 pages

Overview:


Fourth Generation (4G) cellular deployments via LTE are underway and hold the promise of increased bandwidth for data and greater capacity overall once VoLTE is deployed. More capacity easily translates into more bandwidth to offer, more subscriptions to sell, more data consumed, and more data revenue for the carriers.

On the demand side, bear services, particularly data, continues to grow at a healthy pace, but there are limits to growth in bearer service for consumer and even enterprise usage. In addition, there is an increasing awareness of Internet Protocol (IP) being cheap source of transport, and hence more people becoming aware of VoIP, and therefore Over the Top (OTT) VoIP alternatives.

However, there are many business challenges and opportunities to consider including the coming onslaught of mobile video, many cloud-based applications, marginalization of core services, and the extreme need for Value-added Services (VAS) on the part of the mobile network operator.

This report is must-reading for anyone engaged in business planning aspects of LTE deployment and operations. This report provides a global and regional LTE status assessment as well as LTE strategies including application analysis, application roadmap, vision for the future of LTE, and more. The Summary and Recommendations section provides guidance for network operators, content providers, application developers, infrastructure providers, and wireless device providers.

Customers interested in this report will also be interested in the even more comprehensive report LTE Strategy 2013 - 2018, which in addition to business strategy, focuses on technical and operational challenges, opportunities, and strategies


Report Benefits


• LTE global and regional status update and analysis of key issues including capacity and spectrum
• Identify the business value and roadmap for implementation and operation of LTE based applications
• Understand the future of LTE including applications, integration with the cloud, social networks, and more
• Identify emerging LTE business models including third-party ecosystems, API integration, and expanded applications
• Recommendations and analysis for carriers, content providers, application developers and infrastructure companies
• Understand the issues and opportunities regarding key evolutionary trends including:
o o Anytime, anywhere, any device access to communications, content, commerce, and applications
o o Increased emphasis on non-human communications
o o The convergence and integration of many things
o o Open networks, open interfaces, and many applications


Key Findings:


• Mobile network operators have an imperative to develop Value-added Services (VAS) for LTE
• Carriers must develop key applications such as Corporate Dashboard to retain enterprise customers
• Carriers must prepare for a variety of challenges including much more data usage, increasingly more services in the cloud, severely marginalized core services, and development of VAS across communications, content, and commerce


Target Audience:


• Exporters, Importers and Traders
• Mobile content providers
• Mobile network operators
• Wireless device manufacturers
• Wireless infrastructure providers
• Application developers and aggregators
• Government and sovereign R&D institutions

Table Of Contents


Table of Contents:


1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8
2.0 INTRODUCTION 9
2.1 EVOLUTION OF THE WIRELESS MARKETPLACE 9
2.1.1 KEY EVOLUTIONARY TRENDS 9
2.1.2 KEY SUPPORTING TECHNOLOGIES 12
2.2 BROADBAND WIRELESS EVOLUTION 13
2.2.1 FIRST GENERATION (1G) 13
2.2.2 SECOND GENERATION (2G) 14
2.2.3 THIRD GENERATION (3G) 14
2.2.4 FOURTH GENERATION (4G) 14
2.2.1 FIFTH GENERATION (5G) 19
3.0 LTE GLOBAL STATUS 21
3.1 GLOBAL MARKET SHARE BY TECHNOLOGY 21
3.2 GLOBAL LTE SUBSCRIBERS AND PENETRATION BY COUNTRY 21
3.3 GLOBAL DEPLOYMENT: LTE BY REGION, COUNTRY AND CARRIER 33
3.4 GLOBAL OVERALL (2G, 3G, AND 4G) MOBILE PENETRATION 43
3.5 GLOBAL LTE INDUSTRY VERTICALS 44
3.5.1 OIL AND GAS 44
3.5.2 CONSTRUCTION 45
3.5.3 AGRICULTURE 45
3.5.4 MINING 45
3.5.5 UTILITIES 46
3.5.6 TRANSPORTATION 46
3.5.7 MILITARY/DEFENSE 47
3.5.8 PUBLIC SAFETY 48
3.5.9 EDUCATION AND DISTANCE LEARNING 49
4.0 LTE REGIONAL STATUS 50
4.1 OVERALL REGIONAL ANALYSIS 50
4.1.1 MOBILE USAGE DURING THE LAST TWENTY YEARS BY REPRESENTATIVE COUNTRY 50
4.1.2 GLOBAL LTE SUBSCRIBERS BY REGION 51
4.1.3 TOP DATA USAGE BY COUNTRY FOR 3G AND LTE 51
4.1.4 COMS, COMMERCE, AND APP USAGE PATTERNS IN REPRESENTATIVE COUNTRIES 52
4.2 AMERICAS 53
4.2.1 LTE IN USA 55
4.2.2 LTE IN LATIN AMERICA 56
4.3 EUROPE 58
4.3.1 FRANCE 60
4.3.2 GERMANY 60
4.3.3 ITALY 60
4.3.4 SPAIN 61
4.3.5 UNITED KINGDOM 61
4.4 MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA 61
4.4.1 MIDDLE EAST 62
4.4.2 AFRICA 63
4.5 ASIA PACIFIC 65
4.5.1 AUSTRALIA 65
4.5.1 CHINA 66
4.5.2 INDIA 66
4.5.1 JAPAN 68
4.5.2 SOUTH KOREA 69
5.0 CARRIER CHALLENGES 71
5.1 SPECTRUM AVAILABILITY 71
5.2 CAPEX BUDGETS 71
5.3 IS MORE CAPACITY BETTER? 71
5.3.1 ADVANTAGES 71
5.3.2 DISADVANTAGES 71
5.4 THE FIGHT AGAINST OTT PLAYERS 72
5.4.1 OTT VOICE 72
5.4.2 OTT MESSAGING 72
5.4.3 CARRIERS TO FIGHT BACK 74
5.5 THE DRIVERS FOR NEW APPLICATIONS 76
6.0 LTE APPLICATION STRATEGY 78
6.1 PREPARE FOR MUCH MORE DATA USAGE 78
6.1.1 BIGGEST FACTOR IN MOBILE DATA: MOBILE VIDEO 78
6.1.2 MOBILE VIDEO FORECAST 79
6.2 PREPARE FOR INCREASINGLY MORE SERVICES IN THE CLOUD 79
6.2.1 THE ROLE OF INCUMBENT NETWORK OPERATORS IN MOBILE CLOUD 80
6.2.2 MOBILE DATA IN THE CLOUD FORECAST 81
6.3 PREPARE FOR INCREASINGLY MARGINALIZED CORE SERVICES 81
6.3.1 MARGINALIZATION DRIVES THE NEED FOR VALUE-ADDED SERVICES 81
6.3.2 VALUED SERVICES INCLUDE COMMERCE, CONTENT AND APPS 82
6.4 PREPARE FOR DEPLOYMENT OF VALUE-ADDED SERVICES 86
6.4.1 WHAT IS A VALUE-ADDED SERVICE (VAS)? 86
6.4.2 RELATIONSHIP OF VAS TO OTHER SERVICES 87
6.4.3 WHY ARE VAS IMPORTANT? 87
6.4.4 THE VAS SUPPLY CHAIN 87
6.4.5 CARRIER PLANNING FOR VAS APPLICATIONS 87
7.0 LTE APPLICATION ROADMAP 89
7.1 VIDEO 89
7.1.1 MORE OF THE SAME: ONLY FASTER 90
7.1.2 VIDEO CALL 93
7.1.3 LTE VIDEO BROADCAST 94
7.1.4 MOBILE TV IN LTE 95
7.2 VOICE OVER LTE (VOLTE) 99
7.2.1 GSMA VOLTE INIATIVES 100
7.2.2 ALTERNATIVES TO VOLTE 101
7.3 RICH COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES (RCS) 102
7.3.1 GSMA RCS INITIATIVES 104
7.3.2 RICH CALLS 105
7.3.3 RICH MESSAGING 106
7.3.4 RCS AND VIDEO 107
7.3.5 DYNAMIC ADDRESS BOOK (DAB) 107
7.4 LTE DIRECT 109
7.4.1 DIRECT SERVICES 110
8.0 THE FUTURE OF LTE 113
8.1 DEVICES AND SUBSCRIBERS 113
8.1.1 SUBSCRIBER BEHAVIORS EVOLVE 114
8.1.2 CONSUMER ELECTRONICS AND LTE 115
8.1.3 THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR SMARTPHONES AND TABLETS 117
8.1.4 NEXT GENERATION DEVICES AND LTE 119
8.2 FUTURE NETWORK TOPOLOGY 120
8.2.1 CONTINUED SMALL CELL EXPANSION 120
8.2.2 HETEROGENEOUS NETWORKS (HETNETS) 121
8.2.3 LTE TOPOLOGY ROADMAP 122
8.3 FUTURE APPLICATIONS 123
8.3.1 LTE AND SOCIAL NETWORKS/MEDIA 124
8.3.2 LTE AND MOBILE MARKETING/ADVERTISING 125
8.3.3 LTE ENABLED MOBILE COMMERCE 126
8.3.4 CLOUD STORAGE/ACCESS 128
8.3.5 PEER-TO-PEER (P2P) COMMUNICATIONS 128
8.3.6 AUGMENTED REALITY (AR) 130
8.3.7 WEARABLE WIRELESS DRIVES NEW APPLICATIONS 134
8.3.8 THE ENTERPRISE/CORPORATE DASHBOARD 135
8.3.9 MACHINE-TO-MACHINE (M2M) AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS (IOT) 137
8.3.10 CONVERGENCE OF M2M, IOT, SOCIAL, AND BIG DATA = HUGE OPPORTUNITY 141
8.4 NEW LTE BUSINESS MODELS 142
8.4.1 MOBILE NETWORK API MODELS 142
8.4.2 WORKING WITH THE CARRIERS 143
8.4.3 DEALING WITH CARRIER CONCERNS IN NEW BUSINESS MODELS 145
8.4.4 THE EMERGENCE OF A STRUCTURED THIRD-PARTY ECOSYSTEM 147
9.0 SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS 150
9.1 CARRIERS 150
9.2 CONTENT PROVIDERS 152
9.3 APPLICATION DEVELOPERS 153
9.3.1 CONSUMER MARKET 153
9.3.2 ENTERPRISE MARKET 154
9.3.3 INDEPENDENTS 155
9.4 INFRASTRUCTURE PROVIDERS 158
9.4.1 ERICSSON 159
9.4.2 HUAWEI 159
9.4.3 NOKIA SIEMENS NETWORKS 160
9.4.4 ALCATEL-LUCENT 160
9.4.5 ZTE 160
9.5 WIRELESS DEVICE PROVIDERS 163
9.5.1 OVERVIEW 163
9.5.2 LTE HANDSET ISSUES 165


List of Figures


Figure 1: Evolution of Wireless 8
Figure 2: Landline/Fixed Losses Forecast 10
Figure 3: Migration from Landline to VoIP Forecast 10
Figure 4: Evolution of Broadband Wireless 12
Figure 5: 3G vs. 4G 15
Figure 6: 4G Evolution 17
Figure 7: LTE vs. LTE Advanced 18
Figure 8: Market Share by Wireless Technology 20
Figure 9: Global LTE Subscription/Penetration by Country 32
Figure 10: Global LTE Subscriptions 42
Figure 11: Overall Mobile Penetration by Region 43
Figure 12: Public Safety LTE Network 47
Figure 51: Mobile Usage in Last Two Decades 49
Figure 52: Global LTE Subscribers by Region 50
Figure 53: Data Traffic in Largest LTE Countries/Operators 50
Figure 54: Usage Patterns in Representative Countries 51
Figure 55: Mobile Data Traffic by Region 52
Figure 56: Wireless Spectrum Demand Projections 53
Figure 57: LTE in United States 54
Figure 58: LTE in Latin America 55
Figure 59: Top MNO's in Latin America 56
Figure 60: LTE Launches in Europe by Operator 58
Figure 61: Middle East LTE Carrier Services Revenue 61
Figure 62: Africa LTE Market 63
Figure 63: Average Texting by User Segment 71
Figure 64: Video Usage by Screen Type 77
Figure 65: Mobile Video Forecast to 2017 78
Figure 66: Mobile Data in the Cloud Forecast to 2017 80
Figure 67: Mobile Commerce Continuum 81
Figure 68: Pull and Push Content Models 84
Figure 69: Value-added Services vs. Core Services 85
Figure 70: Worldwide Mobile Data Usage 89
Figure 71: Mobile TV Ecosystem 95
Figure 72: VoLTE Call Continuity 98
Figure 73: RCS, APIs, and Applications 102
Figure 74: Enhanced Address Book Benefits 107
Figure 75: RCS Application Integration 108
Figure 76: LTE Market Drivers by Operational Improvement 113
Figure 77: Global Smartphone and Tablet Ownership by Country 116
Figure 78: Global Smartphone Market by Region 117
Figure 79: Global Tablet Market by Region 118
Figure 80: HetNets Topology 120
Figure 81: Carrier WiFi and Small Cells 121
Figure 82: Mobile Marketing Investment Growth by Type Forecast to 2015 124
Figure 83: Mobile Marketing Expenditures by Type Forecast to 2015 124
Figure 84: Augmented Reality 129
Figure 85: Enterprise Corporate Dashboard 135
Figure 86: Enterprise Corporate Dashboard: Employee Locator Application 136
Figure 87: Global M2M Growth by 2G/3G/4G Forecast to 2017 137
Figure 88: Global M2M Data Growth Forecast to 2017 138
Figure 89: Evolution of Carrier Business Models and Third Parties 147
Figure 90: Wireless Network Infrastructure RAN Vendor Ranking Matrix 2012 160
Figure 91: Core Network Vendor Ranking Matrix 2012 161
Figure 92: 4G Handset Technical Issues 166

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