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  5. > Libya Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Libya Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Progress towards formation of a unity government offers upside risk to production from 2017.However, a fractured political and security environment, widespread damage to infrastructure and thelegacy of chronic underinvestment in the sector will all serve to slow the pace of recovery. Consumptionwill remain heavily constrained, due to continued violence, repeated fuel and gas shortages and broadereconomic dislocation.Key Trends & Latest Updates

- Piecemeal progress in the UN-brokered peace talks towards a Libyan unity government poses upside riskto our bearish oil and gas outlook. However, a polarised political scene and the deep fragmentation of theconflict will see insecurity remain an enduring feature of the country's operating environment over thecoming years.

- Exploration will remain heavily curtailed across much of our forecast period due to continued instabilityand unattractive fiscal and licensing terms.

- Ongoing instability in Libya affected production throughout 2015, and we expect this dynamic tocontinue into 2016. We forecast an 10.0% y-o-y decline in crude and condensates output, averaging358,000b/d.

- Gas output has been somewhat less affected than crude and we estimate that in 2016 gas production willremain broadly stagnant, at 12.3bcm.

- Refineries will operate below capacity, due to both interruptions in the oil supply and the targeting of oiland gas infrastructure by opponents to the central governments.

- The risks to our view lie largely to the upside and an improvement in Libya's political situation andresultant gains in operational stability could support a more consistent recovery in production andexports. However, this is not our core view at present.

Table Of Contents

Libya Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Libya 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Upstream Exploration 9
Latest Updates 9
Structural Trends 9
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Libya Major Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (Libya 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Libya 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Libya 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2014-2019) 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Libya 2020-2025) 29
Gas Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2014-2019) 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Libya 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Oil 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends: Crude Oil 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2014-2020) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) 35
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Libya 2020-2025) 39
Industry Risk/Reward Index 40
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 40
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 40
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 43
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 43
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 46
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Libya - Risk/Reward Index 49
Upstream Rewards 49
Upstream Risks 49
Downstream 50
Market Overview 51
Libya Energy Market Overview 51
Regulatory Structure 51
Licensing Regime 52
Table: Model EPSA Main Licensing Terms 52
Fiscal Regime 52
Table: Model EPSA Main Fiscal Terms 52
Licensing Rounds 52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 53
Oil Refineries 53
Table: Libya Oil Refineries 53
Oil Terminals 53
Table: Libya Oil Terminals 53
LNG Terminals 54
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya 54
Oil and Gas Pipelines 54
Table: Libya Main Export Pipelines 54
Competitive Landscape 55
Competitive Landscape Summary 55
Table: Key Players - Libya Oil and Gas Sector 56
Table: Key Upstream Players 57
Company Profile 58
NOC 58
Latest Updates 58
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Libya 59
Regional Overview 60
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 60
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 68
Glossary 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Source 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 75
Table: Weighting 76

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