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Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 75 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: A combination of tight liquidity restricting business operations and renewed violence in theDelta region exacerbating the government's struggle in raising adequate revenue to undertake majorinfrastructure spending has seen our forecasts for the construction sector be heavily revised downwards.Chinese credit will be a key lifeline for growth, although will not benefit the whole industry.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We forecast just 1.1% y-o-y real growth in Nigeria's construction sector over 2016, based on the direstate of the wider economy and the lack of liquidity in the banking sector causing projects to grind to ahalt. 2017 will see stronger growth forecast at 7% as the economy settles and a pickup in Chinesefinancing, following the agreement of a USD6bn credit line.

- We expect the transport sector to outperform, given the Chinese credit line and the dominant positionChinese firms have in developing major projects in the sector. The 2016 federal budget also had a largefocus on transport, although we note government financed projects are more susceptible to delays.

- The residential and non-residential building sector has been hardest hit by the economic turmoil and in2016 we now forecast negative growth of -6.0% y-o-y, as investment in the economy grinds to a halt dueto capital controls limiting access to dollars and banks suffering from exposure to the struggling oilsector.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Nigeria 2016-2022) 7
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Nigeria) 8
SWOT 9
Infrastructure SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) 11
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 17
Industry Forecast Scenario 17
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) 17
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview 18
Table: KEY PROJECTS: Transport 28
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook and Overview 29
Industry Forecast Scenario 29
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) 29
Table: Major Projects - Energy and Utilities 35
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview 36
Industry Forecast Scenario 36
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Nigeria 2015-2025) 36
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook And Overview 37
Table: Key Projects: Construction And Social Infrastructure 43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 44
Nigeria - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 44
Rewards 44
Risks 45
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 46
Table: SSA RRI 55
Market Overview 56
Competitive Landscape 56
Table: Equities 63
Company Profile 64
Julius Berger Nigeria Plc 64
Setraco Nigeria Limited 66
Methodology 68
Industry Forecast Methodology 68
Sector-Specific Methodology 69
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Sector-Specific Methodology 74
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 75

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