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Nigeria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 105 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: A deteriorating security situation in the Niger Delta has forced us to knock 600,000b/d off our2016 oil production forecast and unless resolved, the longer-term consequences for investment will be dire.While there have been some notable reforms to the NNPC, there is still a long way to go in order to create atransparent and profitable company that encourages investment and helps Nigeria reach its hydrocarbonpotential.The main trends and developments for Nigeria's oil & gas sector we highlight:

- On the exploration front, the current situation is bleak. The NNPC plans to start exploratory drilling in theLake Chad Basin by October 2016 having conducted 3D seismic surveys in 2015, according to NNPCDirector Emmanuel Kachikwu.

- A worsening security situation has lead us to severely downgrade Nigeria's oil production, as oil and gasinstillations have been continually targeted since the start of the year, halting exports at a number of keyexport terminals.

- The Aje Field, operated by Yinka Folawiyo Petroleum, announced first oil at the start of May 2016. TheFPSO is located offshore Lagos and is expected to produce up to 40,000b/d.

- The Trans-Forcados Pipeline that supplies the Forcados export terminal was blown up in February,triggering a force majeure (see 'Midstream Vulnerabilities: A Drag On Production Growth', February29). Over the past four years the terminal has averaged over 190,000b/d of exports per month and localreports have suggested that 2016 exports would have been over 200,000b/d. After a second attack in Junehampered repair efforts, Shell has decided to shut the terminal indefinitely until the security troubles areresolved.

- Gas pipelines feeding power stations have been targeted by the Niger Delta Avengers, leading toreduction in our gas production forecast this quarter; we note further downside risk to production if theLNG terminal is targeted or larger pipelines are taken out for prolonged periods.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 15
Table: Upstream Project Database 15
Upstream Production - Oil 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Oil Production (Nigeria 2014-2019) 24
Table: Oil Production (Nigeria 2020-2025) 25
Upstream Production - Gas 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Gas Production (Nigeria 2014-2019) 31
Table: Gas Production (Nigeria 2020-2025) 32
Refining 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Nigeria 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Nigeria 2020-2025) 37
Refined Fuels Consumption 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Nigeria 2014-2019) 41
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Nigeria 2020-2025) 41
Gas Consumption 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Gas Consumption (Nigeria 2014-2019) 45
Table: Gas Consumption (Nigeria 2020-2025) 45
Trade - Oil 46
Crude Oil 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 46
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Nigeria 2014-2020) 50
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Nigeria 2020-2025) 51
Refined Fuels 51
Latest Updates 51
Structural Trends 51
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Nigeria 2014-2019) 53
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Nigeria 2020-2025) 53
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 54
Latest Updates 54
Structural Trends 54
Table: Gas Net Exports (Nigeria 2014-2019) 56
Table: Gas Net Exports (Nigeria 2020-2025) 57
Industry Risk/Reward Index 58
Africa - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 58
Table: BMI Africa Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 58
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential 61
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index 61
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity 64
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index 64
Nigeria - Risk/Reward Index 66
Market Overview 68
Nigeria Energy Market Overview 68
Overview/State Role 68
Fiscal Regime 69
Table: Nigeria - Fiscal Terms 69
Table: Nigeria- Licenses And Contract Terms 70
The New Buhari Administration 70
Licensing Rounds 72
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 73
Oil Refineries 73
Oil Terminals/Ports 74
LNG Terminals 75
Gas Pipelines 75
Competitive Landscape 76
Competitive Landscape Summary 76
Table: Key Players - Nigerian Oil and Gas Sector 77
Table: Nigeria Upstream Players 78
Table: Nigeria Downstream Players 78
Company Profile 79
Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) 79
Latest Updates 79
Table: NNPC Key Assets 80
ExxonMobil 81
Latest Updates 81
Table: ExxonMobil Key Fields 82
Table: ExxonMobil Key Financial Data (USDmn) 82
Total 83
Latest Updates 83
Table: Total Key Assets 84
Table: Total Key Financial Data (USDmn) 84
Chevron 85
Latest Updates 85
Table: Chevron Key Assets 86
Table: Chevron Key Financial Data (USDmn) 86
Royal Dutch Shell 87
Latest Updates 87
Table: Key Assets In Nigeria 88
Table: Royal Dutch Shell Key Financial Data (USDmn) 88
Regional Overview 89
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil 89
Table: Africa Oil and Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade 97
Glossary 98
Table: Glossary Of Terms 98
Methodology 100
Industry Forecast Methodology 100
Source 102
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 102
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 104
Table: Weighting 105

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