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Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have revised up our Saudi Arabia crude oil production forecast in 2016. Output will remainin a gentle uptrend across the forecast period, as the kingdom looks to maintain its export levels againstrising demand domestically. The kingdom is increasingly targeting its resources towards development of itsnon-associated gas base. The unconventionals potential is vast, but progress will be slowed by the high costand technically challenging nature of the resource base and a lack of foreign involvement in the sector. Lowstate-set gas prices are a major deterrent to investment and the December 2015 hike in prices will beinsufficient to draw interest from the major internationals. The consumption outlook is bullish for both oiland gas, despite ongoing subsidy reform. However, gas demand will remain capped by production acrossour 10-year forecast.

Latest Updates & Key Trends

- Saudi output will trend gently upwards across the next five years.

- However, we forecast exports to remain flat as new refining capacity is brought online, absorbingforecast production growth.

- In order to support exports, the kingdom has looked to increase the role of gas in the domestic power andindustrial sectors. However, domestic gas consumption remains heavily capped due to limited productiongrowth.

- In spite of Saudi Arabia's heavy focus on unconventional and onshore non-associated gas resources,we expect slow progress in developing these prospects. Domestic production will likely remaininsufficient to meet unrestrained demand.

Table Of Contents

Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Upstream Project Database 14
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 19
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 19
Upstream Production - Gas 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 27
Refined Fuels Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Saudi Arabia Fuel Price Reform, December 2015 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 33
Gas Consumption 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Oil 37
Crude Oil 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2014-2020) 41
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 41
Refined Fuels 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 42
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 43
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 44
Structural Trends 44
Industry Risk Reward Index 45
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 46
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 48
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 48
Saudi Arabia - Risk/Reward Index 51
Market Overview 52
Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview 52
Regulatory Overview 52
Licensing Regime 52
Fiscal Regime 52
Table: Saudi Arabia PCA Main Fiscal Terms 52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 53
Oil Refineries 53
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil Refineries 53
Oil Terminals/Ports 53
Oil Pipelines 54
Gas Pipelines 55
Competitive Landscape 56
Competitive Landscape Summary 56
Company Profile 58
Saudi Aramco 58
Latest Updates 58
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Saudi Arabia 59
Regional Overview 60
Middle East Oil and Gas Regional Overview 60
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging 60
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth 62
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 and March 2016 (Usd/Litre) 62
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market 64
Gas Production: In Need Of More Gas 65
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 67
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade 68
Glossary 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Source 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 75
Table: Weighting 76

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