Singapore Freight Transport Report Q3 2014

  • July 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 100 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updatesSingapore's role as a global transhipment hub is both its blessing and its curse. In times such as these, when key markets in Europe and the US are either recessionary or growing sluggishly, it can be hit by depleted freight volumes. In 2014, we forecast growth in both port and airport total tonnage volumes, albeit it will be sluggish. Both facilities are investing considerably, and we are confident of growth over the medium and long term.

Headline Industry Data
- 2014 air freight tonnage through Changi International Airport to grow 1.1% after a 0.8% expansion in 2013. Growth over our forecast period (2014-2018) to average 1.2% a year.
- The Port of Singapore's gross tonnage will grow by 7.2% in 2014, with average annual growth at 5.4% during our forecast period.
- The country's overall trade will grow by 3.4% in real terms in 2014, to average 4.1% to 2018.

Table Of Contents

Singapore Freight Transport Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View . 7
SWOT . 9
Freight Transport ... 9
Political .... 11
Economic .. 12
Business Environment . 13
Industry Forecast 14
Air Freight .... 16
Table: Air Freight (Singapore 2011-2018) . 18
Maritime . 18
Table: Maritime Freight (Singapore 2011-2018) 20
Road Freight . 20
Trade . 21
Table: Trade Overview (Singapore 2011-2018) . . 21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Singapore 2011-2018) . . 21
Table: Singapore's Top Import Sources, 2004-2012 (USDmn) . . 23
Table: Singapore's Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012 (USDmn) . . 23
Market Overview . 25
Industry Trends And Developments 30
Air .... 30
Maritime . 30
Company Profile .. 35
Singapore Airlines Cargo (SIA Cargo) 35
Pacific International Lines (PIL) .. 39
Pacific Carriers Limited (PCL) .... 42
APL .... 44
Political Outlook .. 52
Domestic Politics .. 52
PAP Plying New Territory .... 52
Staying The Course .. 53
Long-Term Political Outlook .. 54
Table: Table: Political Overview . 57
Oil Price Outlook . 59
Bunker Fuel .... 59
Table: BMI Crude Oil and Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) . . 59
The Storm Clears For Shipping ... 60
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices .... 62
Long-Term Threats Linger .... 63
Pressing Rotterdam and New York Harder 65
Risks To Outlook . 66
Jet Fuel .... 66
Table: BMI Crude Oil and Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl . 66
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall . 67
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth . 69
Risks To Outlook . 72
Diesel .. 73
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 73
New York's One-Off Heat Up . 73
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected . 76
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward ... 80
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks 82
Risks To Outlook . 86
Macroeconomic Forecasts 87
Economic Analysis 87
Global Liquidity Conditions Present Risks To Singapore… . 89
…But State Of Economy Remains Sound . 90
Table: Singapore - Economic Activity 93
Demographic Forecast . 94
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . . 95
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . . 96
Table: Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 97
Table: Singapore's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . . 97
Methodology ... 98
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 98
Sector-Specific Methodology . 99
Sources . 100

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