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United Kingdom Renewables Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 62 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect the UK non-hydropower renewables sector to slow down significantly over the nextdecade, as sweeping subsidy cuts will lower the attractiveness of the market and hit investor confidence.Given that DECC estimates that the subsidy spending allocated under the LCF is over budget for the nextfive years, we see little room for the Conservative government to backtrack from its austere renewablesstrategy.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- A Brexit on June 23 could put the UK offshore sector at risk, as there is uncertainty over how EU-levelfunding to the UK would be impacted. As one of the EU's main funding beneficiaries for energy projectfunding, such an event could pose a pertinent obstacle to the development of capital intensive offshorewind power.

- Wind power generation registered a growth spike over 2015, as a result of the strong winds over the year.The y-o-y growth figure of 26.4% means that the sector comprised about 13% of total power generation,and 55.7% of total non-hydropower renewables power generation.

- The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) forecast that expenditures for renewablessubsidy schemes will go over the GBP7.6bn 2020-2021 spending limit allocated under the Levy ControlFramework by GBP1.5bn. We therefore see little room for the Conservative party majority governmentto deviate from its austere renewables policy.

- Small scale and large scale solar power, as well as onshore wind power, can no longer access therenewables obligations certificate scheme (ROC) should they not have access to the various grace periodsset out by the government. From April 2015, new solar power projects with a capacity over 5MW have toqualify for support under the contracts for difference scheme, alongside other renewable energytechnologies such as wind and biomass. The government is also contemplating whether to close the CfDscheme for onshore wind - which it expects to be deployed without subsidy support.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Renewables Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (United Kingdom 2015-2021) 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
United Kingdom Renewables Forecast Scenario 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Less Punitive Small-Scale Solar FiT Cuts 26
Table: Capacity Caps For FiT Access To Curb Growth 27
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 34
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 34
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 36
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 37
United Kingdom Renewables Projects Database 38
Table: United Kingdom - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW) 38
Industry Risk Reward Index 39
United Kingdom Renewables Risk/Reward Index 39
Rewards 39
Risks 40
Market Overview 42
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 42
Targets 42
Table: Carbon Plan Budget Targets 42
Subsidies 43
Table: Softened Solar Cuts Still Punitive 44
Infrastructure 45
Table: Planned Interconnections Will Boost Power Supply 51
Competitive Landscape 52
EDF Energy 52
EON AG 52
The National Grid Company 53
RWE npower 54
Scottish Power 54
SSE 55
Dong Energy 55
Glossary 56
Table: Glossary Of Terms 56
Methodology 57
Methodology And Sources 57
Industry Forecast Methodology 57
Sources 59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 59
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 61
Table: Weighting Indicators 62

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