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South Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: This quarter sees some slight revisions to our forecasts for South Africa's mobile andbroadband subscriber markets. The mobile market outperformed our expectations in 2015, adding over 8mnsubscribers in the 12 months to December. 3G and 4G services continue to experience strong uptake andare having a positive impact on non-voice service revenues. In January 2016, all three carriers showcasedtheir LTE-Advanced technology and we believe that they will roll-out LTE-Advanced services commerciallyover the course of 2016. Further market consolidation is expected, despite the collapse of mobile marketleader Vodacom's attempt to acquire fixed-line network operator Neotel, and the decision by marketincumbent, Telekom South Africa, to call off its attempt to acquire the country's third largest operator, CellC. However, with downwards pressure on traditional voice ARPUs and with a renewed focus on data,Telekom will continue to look for a way of strengthening its position in the mobile market. Meanwhile,Vodacom remains committed to strengthen its position in the wireline market and Tata Communications,the parent company of Neotel, is reportedly already looking for a new buyer for its South Africansubsidiary.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- The South African mobile market grew higher than forecast in 2015 as the market added an impressive8.14mn subscribers. Our revised forecast now envisages a market with over 97mn subscribers in 2020.

- The main source of future growth in the mobile market will be the development of 3G and 4G services.We currently anticipate 47.7mn 3G and 4G subscriptions by the end of our forecast period in 2020. Thelatest investments in developing and preparing the commercial launch of LTE-Advanced services by allmajor operators are a clear signal that the operators are preparing for intense competition based on thedelivery of data services.

- Our revised forecast for South Africa's broadband sector envisages the number of broadbandsubscriptions increasing from 8.15mn in 2015 to over 9.4mn in 2020, equivalent to a penetration rate of16.6%. Increasing competition and investment pose an upside risk to this forecast.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Telecommunications Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates and Industry Developments 7
SWOT 9
Telecoms 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2020) 15
Industry Risk Reward Index 16
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 16
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index, Q3 2016 19
South Africa Risk/Reward Index 21
Market Overview 22
Market Drivers and Trends 22
Mobile 22
Wireline Voice and Broadband 32
Table: Telkom Fixed Telephony Access Lines ('000) 33
Table: Telkom Internet Subscriptions 34
Table: Recent Fibre Developments 35
Regulatory Development 36
South Africa - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 36
Table: Competition Commission (CompCom) 36
Table: Department of Communications (DoC) 36
Table: Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (ICASA) 37
Latest Developments 39
Table: National Broadband Policy Access Targets 41
Competitive Landscape 42
Table: Key Players 42
Source: Operator data 42
Table: Market Overview 2014-2015 42
Table: Vodacom 43
Table: MTN 45
Table: Cell C 47
Table: 8ta - Telkom South Africa 47
Table: Virgin Mobile 48
Company Profile 49
Cell C 49
MTN 53
Telkom 58
Vodacom 63
Demographic Forecast 67
Demographic Outlook 67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 68
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 68
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 70
Glossary 72
Table: Glossary Of Terms 72
Methodology 74
Industry Forecast Methodology 74
Sources 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 76
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 78

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