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Thailand Telecommunications Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain our view that the focus in the Thai mobile sector in 2016 will be on 4G, asoperators forked out exorbitant amounts for valuable spectrum in 2015. The spectrum will enable operatorsto expand their LTE networks and value-added-services (VAS) without having the state-owned operatorstaking a cut, as per the previous BTO-concession model. On the fixed broadband side, the NationalBroadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) and ICT ministry have laid out investment androll-out plans for a national broadband network, using proceeds from the spectrum auction, enlisting stateownedCAT and TOT to carry it out. However, the lack of regulator independence and a political agenda intelecoms still inhibit development of the industry. Looking ahead, the lack of new operators entering themarket suggests that its competitive dynamics may remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. As a result,we expect renewed competition to heat up in the market, based on innovative technologies and price.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

- JAS Mobile won the spectrum auction last year but has failed to generate the estimated USD2.1bnrequired to pay for the 4G spectrum license. DTAC and True have walked away from the auction andAIS is the likely candidate to procure to spectrum initially allocated to JAS Mobile. The failure of JAS toenter the market will ensure that competition amongst the three incumbent players will heat up.

- Total mobile subscriptions fell sharply to 83.05mn in Q415 as a result of the compulsory SIMregistration drive which lasted till August. This was a 14.5% y-o-y contraction of total mobilesubscribers. However, a notable effect was the resulting rise in 3G/4G subscriptions as a percentage oftotal mobile subscriptions to 96%, from 85% a year earlier, and we forecast total 3G/4G subscriptionsto reach 86.6mn by end-2020.

- Despite the focus largely on the mobile sector this year, latest fixed broadband subscription data fromthe regulator has shown a strong continuous growth in subscribers, to 6.4mn in Q415, y-o-y growthof 12.5%. We believe this steady increase will continue in 2016, reaching 6.85mn by the year-end.

Table Of Contents

Thailand Telecommunications Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Thailand 2013-2020) 15
Industry Risk/Reward Index 16
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index 16
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q316 18
Industry Risk/Reward Index 19
Market Overview 21
Market Drivers and Trends 21
Mobile 22
Table: 3G and 4G Uptake by Operator (000) 28
Wireline Voice and Broadband 29
Table: Broadband Market Growth 30
Table: Thai Broadband Market 31
Pay TV/ Convergence 35
Regulatory Development 37
Regulatory Overview 37
Table: Thailand's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 38
Regulatory Developments 38
Competitive Landscape 41
Table: Mobile Market Overview 41
Table: AIS 41
Table: DTAC 44
Table: True 47
Table: Broadband Connections 48
Company Profile 49
TOT 49
True Corporation 55
Advanced Info Service (AIS) 59
DTAC 63
Demographic Forecast 67
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Thailand 1990-2025) 68
Table: Key Population Ratios (Thailand 1990-2025) 68
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Thailand 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group (Thailand 1990-2025) 69
Table: Population By Age Group % (Thailand 1990-2025) 70
Glossary 72
Table: Glossary Of Terms 72
Methodology 74
Industry Forecast Methodology 74
Sources 76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 76
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 77
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 78

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