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  5. > Mozambique Mining Report Q3 2016

Mozambique Mining Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 47 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Mozambique's mining revenue will remain heavily dependent on the country's coal sector,leaving the sector exposed to continued global coal price weakness. Despite this, coal production growthwill continue to exceed gold output growth. Furthermore, both sectors will continue to attract interest fromoverseas investors.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- The suspension of donor aid to Mozambique in the wake of the hidden debt scandal has prompted us todowngrade our construction growth forecasts for 2016, to 4.0% in real terms down from the originalprojection of 4.8% (see 'Government Debt Scandal Weighs On Infrastructure Outlook', May 9). Thegovernment will struggle to fund the road and social infrastructure projects earmarked in its budget, asthe weak commodities outlook alongside high recurrent expenditure weighs on the fiscal balance.

- We have revised our coal production forecast on the back of persistent challenges facing the country'scoal sector. We forecast the country's coal production to grow from 8.0mnt in 2016 to 9.5mnt by 2020,representing an average growth of 4.2% y-o-y during 2016-2020.

- Mozambique's coal production growth will continue to be hampered by weak global coal prices, highdomestic start-up costs and inadequate infrastructure. Despite this, growth will be supported byincreasing investment coming into the market, which will support long-term production growth. A keyproject underway is the USD300mn modernisation project at the port of Nacala in the Nampula province,bolstered by funding from the Japanese government and on track for completion by 2020. Thedevelopment is supported by the 912km railway linking the port to the country's vast reserves in the Teteprovince, completed in 2014; and the Nacala-a-Velha coal terminal which opened in 2015. These projectsform part of the Nacala Logistics Corridor, commissioned by Vale in 2012 to link the reserves to the eastcoast of Mozambique. In 2015 the company received an USD300mn loan from the African DevelopmentBank to increase export capacity at the port of Beira.

Table Of Contents

Mozambique Mining Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Mozambique Mining Industry Value 7
Latest Developments and Structural Trends 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Coal: Investment To Boost Growth 10
Latest Developments 10
Table: Mozambique - Coal Production Forecasts 10
Table: Mozambique - New Coal Projects 11
Structural Trends 11
India and Japan To Ramp Up Investment 12
Price Drop Hits Profitability Though Not Output 14
Infrastructure Remains Key Challenge 15
Gold: Growth To Lack Behind Coal Sector 17
Latest Developments 17
Table: Mozambique - Gold Production Forecast 17
Table: Mozambique - Gold Projects 17
Structural Trends 18
Exploration Points To Potential Long-Term Expansion 18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 20
Mozambique - Mining Risk/Reward Index 20
Rewards 20
Industry Rewards 20
Country Rewards 20
Risks 20
Industry Risks 20
Country Risks 21
Africa - Risk/Reward Index 21
Key Takeaways 21
Latest Revisions 22
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index 23
Regulatory Development 24
Recent Developments 24
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 24
Commodities Forecast 28
Commodities Outlook 28
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 28
Competitive Landscape 29
Table: Select Companies - Comparative Metrics 30
Company Profile 31
Vale - Q3 2016 31
Company Overview 33
Company Strategy 34
Latest Results 36
Table: Vale - Key Financial Data 36
Regional Overview 37
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector 42
Methodology 44
Industry Forecast Methodology 44
Sources 45
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 46
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 47

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