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Russia Information Technology Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 74 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: In contrast to Russian IT spending, which declined sharply in 2015 as the economicenvironment deteriorated, the local industry received some benefit from the decline in affordability forimports and the government's stand-off with the West through preferential treatment in some productcategories. The overall impact was still negative due to the depth of the economic crisis and the extent ofrouble depreciation, and we forecast a further contraction in 2016 and only modest recovery over themedium term with total IT spending expected to record a CAGR of 7.1% over 2016-2020 to a value ofRUB1.2trn. There is however significant uncertainty surrounding the outlook, with political risks a sourceof downside, but a faster than expected recovery in oil prices could accelerate economic recovery andunlock deferred spending from 2014-2016.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- Hardware: RUB446.9bn in 2016 to RUB551.1bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of5.4%. Our forecast for only a weak recovery in household purchasing power weighs on the outlook, butthere is pent-up demand after the economic crisis in 2014-2016 and an increase in local production couldalso boost growth.

- Software: RUB185.2bn in 2016 to RUB242.5bn in 2020, a CAGR of 7.0%. Local software solutionsfared well in 2015, and domestic vendors should benefit as enterprise software investments bounce backmore fully than hardware spending, especially in the public sector where spending on imported solutionsis restricted by new regulations from 2016.

- Services: RUB280.0bn in 2016 to RUB407.0bn in 2020, a CAGR of 9.8%. Russian data localisationregulations are positive for cloud services in the short-run, but we caution that an extension oftechnological isolationism could dampen performance over the longer term.

Table Of Contents

Russia Information Technology Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates and Industry Developments 7
SWOT 9
IT SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Enterprise Trends - GVA By Vertical (Russia 2015-2020) 15
Table: IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2013-2020) 16
Industry Risk Reward Index 17
Table: Europe IT Risk/Reward Index, Q3 2016 20
Market Overview 21
Recent Developments 21
Hardware 21
Software 28
Cloud Computing 33
Services 38
Industry Trends And Developments 44
IT Hardware Trade 44
Table: CEE IT Hardware Trade, 2010-2015 44
Table: Russia IT Hardware Trade, 2010-2015 45
IT Industry Analysis 46
Regulatory Development 51
Table: IT Authorities 51
Competitive Landscape 56
Retailers 56
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers 56
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers 56
IT Vendors 57
Table: Lenovo 57
Table: Foxconn 58
Table: Huawei Technologies 59
Table: Kaspersky Lab 60
Table: Mailru 61
Regional Overview 62
Demographic Forecast 65
Demographic Outlook 65
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) 66
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) 66
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 67
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) 67
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 68
Methodology 70
Industry Forecast Methodology 70
Sources 72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 72
Table: IT Risk/Reward Index Indicators 73
Table: Weighting Of Components 74

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