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Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 91 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Turkmenistan's actual gas production will remain limited by its limited export options. WithRussia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of Turkmen gas and with other large-scale exports (notablyTAPI) unlikely to materialise over our 10-year forecast period, the country's production will remain almostentirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels to China.

- A renewed emphasis on international investment, along with developments by Turkmennebit, has leadto a slow but progressive increase in oil production. This will endure over the coming years. Largerproduction growth within our forecast period, however, is unlikely until a sustainable agreement isreached between Iran, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan on the Caspian maritime border dispute.

- The difficult business environment could, however, dissuade international investors, notably at a time ofcapital expenditure cut backs as oil prices remain low. For example, German company DEA DeutscheErdoel is reportedly planning to relinquish its Caspian Sea concession as of October 2015 overfrustration at excess bureaucracy, corruption and a lack of permit granting.

- Despite its large gas production potential, Turkmenistan's actual production will remain limited by itsexport options. With Russia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of Turkmen gas, the country'sproduction will remain almost entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels toChina. With economic slowdown in China and Russia quitting Turkmen gas imports, we have recentlyreduced our gas production outlook for Turkmenistan over our 10-year forecast period.

- Turkmenistan's level of gas consumption will take up an increasing proportion of produced gas as thecountry's exports stagnate on the back of falling exports to Russia and Iran. As production continues toramp up, we believe that gas consumption will follow suit, although at a slower pace, to 41.44bcm in2025 compared with an estimated 25.46bcm in 2015.

Table Of Contents

Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 13
Table: Turkmenistan Major Upstream Projects 13
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 18
Upstream Production - Gas 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 27
Refined Fuels Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 30
Gas Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 32
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Oil 33
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2020) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 35
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
TAPI Stuck As Iran, LNG Provide Options 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2019) 44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025) 44
Industry Risk Reward Index 45
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 45
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 46
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 46
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 49
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 49
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 51
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Index 53
Upstream Index 53
Downstream Index 53
Market Overview 55
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview 55
Overview/State Role 57
Licensing And Regulation 58
Government Policy 58
International Energy Relations 58
Table: Upstream Projects 60
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 61
Oil Refineries 61
Oil Storage Facilities 62
Oil Terminals/Ports 63
Oil Pipelines 63
Gas Pipelines 63
Table: TAPI Timeline 69
Competitive Landscape 72
Competitive Landscape 72
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies 73
Table: Key Upstream Players 73
Table: Downstream Players 73
Company Profile 74
Turkmengaz 74
Latest Updates 74
Table: Major Upstream Asset in Turkmenistan 75
Regional Overview 76
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 76
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 76
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 77
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 78
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 79
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 80
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 81
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 82
Glossary 84
Table: Glossary Of Terms 84
Methodology 86
Industry Forecast Methodology 86
Source 88
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 88
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 90
Table: Weighting 91

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