Germany Telecommunications Industry Update Quarter 3 2012

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 142 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The first quarter of 2012 saw a reversal of the strong growth in mobile subscriptions reported by operators in 2011, with the industry losing a total more than 900,000 subscribers. This saw total subscriptions decline to 113.2mn at the end of March 2012. However, despite a difficult start to 2012 and the spectre of economic crisis looming over the economy, BMI believes significant opportunities remain in the Germany telecoms industry . This report analyses recent trends and developments at the industry and operator level to provide insight into the development of the industry in the coming years, both through qualitative views and our quantitative projections of the mobile, fixed-line and broadband industries, as well as mobile ARPUs, which all run through to 2016.
Despite the reversal of growth in the mobile industry in Q112, Germany remains in fourth place in BMI's Risk/Reward Ratings Germany's improving position is largely due to the continued growth in the industry, underpinned by its strong Country Risks and Country Rewards scores. However, with the eurozone crisis, and specifically questions around Greece's membership, intensifying in May 2012, there is potential for Germany's score to be negatively impacted in the coming quarters.
Looking beyond the most recent quarter and the macroeconomic environment, the German industry is home to strong competitive dynamics, driving service uptake and innovation. Operators are currently extending the reach of LTE networks, with Vodafone and T-Mobile beginning to industry commercial services in urban areas after meeting rural coverage requirement as part of their sub-1GHz licences. O2 is set to follow with urban roll-out of LTE services in Q312. BMI considers the increasing coverage of LTE services, among the most extensive in Europe, likely to boost the mobile data industry, as well as introducing a new dynamic of competition for fixed-broadband providers now competing against mobile broadband able to offer comparable bandwidth. In fact, Vodafone is speculating that it may abandon wholesale DSL arrangements with Deutsche Telekom (DT) in favour of LTE broadband provision.
The German wireline segment is highly competitive with the incumbent, DT, and alternative DSL providers such as Telefónica-owned Alice, competing against cable providers including Liberty Globalowned Unitymedia (and now Kabel Baden-Wuerttemberg) and Kabel Deutschland. Cable providers are set to intensify competition following a period of consolidation that has seen Unitymedia take over Kabel BW and, more recently in May 2012, Kabel Deutschland reached a preliminary agreement to take over Tele Columbus. This threat is more intense as a result of cable providers' utilisation of the DOCSIS3.0 standard to offer cost-efficient, high-speed broadband services - tapping into consumer demand for next generation services.
However, BMI increasingly views innovation in pay-TV services as a threat to cable companies ' recent successful streak in Germany. The first threat comes from DT's IPTV service, which has proved very popular with consumers. Meanwhile, a second threat comes from Sky Deutschland, which has made strides towards becoming a serious challenger via service innovation including Sky+ and Sky Go (multiscreen) in the past 12 months. BMI does not expect Sky to mirror its sister industry player BSkyB's successes in the UK as it does not offer converged services; however, the combination of multiscreen and take over of Budnesliga rights makes it a stronger competitive threat.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary 9
Industry SWOT Analysis . 11
Mobile Industry SWOT Analysis .11
Wireline Industry SWOT Analysis .13
Political.15
Economic . 16

Environment Overview . 17
Industry Business Environment Overview . 18

Environment Overview Analysis .18
Data : Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 ... 20
Germany .21

Market Projection .. 23
Mobile .23
Data : Telecoms Segment - Mobile - Historical Data and Projections .23
ARPU .. 25
Data : Market Trends - Monthly Blended Mobile ARPU (EUR) .25
Fixed Line .. 26
Data : Telecoms Segment - Fixed Line - Historical Data and Projections . 26
Internet .. . 28
Data : Telecoms Segment - Internet - Historical Data and Projections .28
Market Data Analysis 31
Mobile .31
Data : German Mobile Industry, Q112 ..35
ARPU .. . 37
MVNOs .38
3G .40
LTE (4G) .. 41
Mobile Contract Wins . . 44
Data : Mobile Contract Wins .44
Mobile Operator Data s 47
Data : Mobile Industry Overview ... 47
Data : T-Mobile . 47
Data : Vodafone 48
Data : E-Plus .49
Data : O2 .. 50
Mobile Regional Content 52
LTE-Mobile Broadband 53
The Machines Are Taking Over .55
Data : Smart Meter Race Is On .56
Country Outlook .57
Data : Selected VAS Services .. 63
Fixed Line .. 63
Data : Fixed-Line Subscriptions By Operator ('000), Q111 And Q112 . 66
Broadband .69
Pay-TV .. 80
Data : Wireline Developments .84
Converged Service Operator Data ..85
Data : Deutsche Telekom .85
Data : Kabel Deutschland .. . 86
Data : UPC Unitymedia . 87
Data : Telefónica (HanseNet) .88
Regulatory Development .. 90
Data : Germany Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities .. . 90

Industry Developments . 97

Competition Overview 99
Data : Key Players - Germany Telecoms Segment ... 99
Data : Selected Operators Financial Indicators, from 2007 to 2011 (US$mn) . . 100
Western Europe Vendor Profile ... 101
US$78bn Addressable Industry .102
MandAs Point Up Growth Strategy .103
Operator Profiles 105
Deutsche Telekom . 105
T-Mobile International . . 112
Vodafone Germany 116
E-Plus .. . 122
Telefónica O2 Germany . 126

Industry Analysis . 130
Mobile .. . 130
Data : Regional Mobile Penetration Overview ..131
Fixed Line .131
Data : Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview ... . 132
Broadband .. . 132
Data : Regional Broadband Penetration Overview ... 134
Demographic Data .. 135

Section I : Population 135
Data : Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ... 135
Data : Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ... 135

Section II : Education And Healthcare ..136
Data : Education, from 2002 to 2005 .. 136
Data : Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ..136

Section III : Labour Industry And Spending Power ... . 136
Data : Employment Indicators, from 2001 to 2006 ... . 136
Data : Consumer Expenditure, from 2000 to 2012 (US$) ... . 137
Data : Average Annual Manufacturing Wages ... . 137
Glossary . 138
Data : Glossary Of Terms .138
Methodology .. 140
Data : Key Indicators For Telecommunications Market Projections . . 140
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings ..141
Data : Ratings Indicators .142
Data : Weighting Of Indicators .143

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