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  4. > Colombia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Colombia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 85 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Colombia's agribusiness sector is being held back by a number of deep structural challenges -including the lingering consequences of internal armed conflict, structural inefficiencies, lowcompetitiveness and poor policy choices. As a result, area cultivated and yields have stagnated over thepast decade. But after several decades of disappointing growth in Colombia's agribusiness sector, theoutlook for production and exports is brightening. The efforts made to resolve the conflict, coupled with thepotential for upcoming agricultural reforms, have paved the way for the revival of Colombia's agribusiness.The coffee, fruits, sugar, palm oil and horticulture sectors offer the best opportunities. Colombianagriculture enjoys a large diversity thanks to abundant natural resources and diverse climates andtopography. Although FTAs may undermine the livestock and dairy sectors, they also provide Colombiawith large export markets. The US and EU, which are the main markets for Colombian agriculturalproducts, will see their imports grow in the coming years with the decrease in tariffs.Key Forecasts

- Corn consumption growth to 2020: 18.0% to 7.1mn tonnes. Corn consumption will expand at a fasterpace than production over the medium term, boosted by the growth in the livestock sector, especially inthe poultry segment. The domestic corn deficit will reach 4.75mn tonnes by 2018/19, compared with3.95mn tonnes in 2013/14.

- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 26.4% to 1.8mn tonnes.

Poultry will record the strongestgrowth within the livestock sector over the coming five years, supported by a growing domestic demandfor meat products at affordable prices.

- Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 11.1% to 14.8mn bags. Programmes to replace ageingplantations and improve resistance to disease are starting to bear fruit and will support yields and lead toapick up in planted area in the coming years. The various FTAs signed over recent years with the US,Canada and the EU will provide Colombia with large export markets.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD23.72bn in 2016; up from USD23.46bn in 2015; growthto average 5.0% annually between 2016 and 2020.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 2.4%; down from 3.1% in 2015. Forecast to average 3.1% from 2016 to 2020.

- 2016 consumer price index: 6.9%; up from 5.0% in 2015. Forecast to average 4.3% from 2016 to 2020.

Table Of Contents

Colombia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Table: Colombia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Colombia - Risks To Grains Outlook 13
Table: Colombia - Select Grains Production and Consumption, 2013-2020f 17
Sugar Outlook 18
Table: Colombia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Colombia - Risks To Sugar Outlook 19
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Colombia 2013-2020) 23
Coffee Outlook 24
Table: Colombia - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 25
Table: Colombia - Risks To Coffee Outlook 25
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Colombia 2013-2020) 29
Cocoa Outlook 30
Table: Colombia - Cocoa Production And Consumption Outlook 30
Table: Colombia - Risks To Cocoa Outlook 30
Table: Cocoa Production and Consumption (Colombia 2012-2020) 32
Dairy Outlook 33
Table: Colombia - Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook 33
Table: Colombia - Risks To Dairy Outlook 34
Table: Milk Production and Consumption (Colombia 2012-2020) 37
Livestock Outlook 38
Table: Colombia - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 38
Table: Colombia - Risks To Livestock Outlook 39
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Colombia 2014-2020) 41
Commodities Price Analysis 42
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 42
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 42
Featured Analysis 44
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 44
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 44
Upstream Analysis 46
Americas GM Outlook 46
Americas Machinery Outlook 52
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 55
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 59
Downstream Analysis 65
Food 65
Latest Updates 65
Structural Trends 66
Table: Food Sales (Colombia 2013-2020) 68
Regional Overview 71
Competitive Landscape 78
Table: Key Agribusiness Players 78
Demographic Forecast 79
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Colombia 1990-2025) 80
Table: Key Population Ratios (Colombia 1990-2025) 80
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Colombia 1990-2025) 81
Table: Population By Age Group (Colombia 1990-2025) 81
Table: Population By Age Group % (Colombia 1990-2025) 82
Methodology 84
Industry Forecast Methodology 84
Sector-Specific Methodology 85

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