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Peru Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We continue to maintain a generally positive outlook for the Peruvian agricultural sector. Wehave modestly revised our forecasts for several segments of the Peruvian agricultural sector in our Q3 2016update though continue to maintain a positive outlook for the agricultural sector as a whole. Export cropssuch as coffee and cocoa are hampered by infrastructure constraints and a lack of investment; however, asPeru develops and gains recognition for organic and speciality crops, both these sectors stand to benefit.Peru is also set to benefit from cheaper food imports owing to the lower price of grains and weakness in theArgentine peso, as Argentina is a major source of imported grains. Recently the focus has shifted towardsthe coffee and cocoa crop, both strong export based revenue generating commodities for the Peruvianeconomy. Peru is one of the largest exporters of coffee, and organic coffee in particular. The recent rustdisease significantly diminished the national coffee crop and has forced many smaller, independent farmersinto bankruptcy. Looking forward, we believe that both coffee and cocoa will post strong gains.Furthermore the dairy and livestock sectors will also grow significantly based on rising incomes andprivate final consumption levels.Key Forecasts

- Poultry production to 2019/2020: 1.429mn tonnes. Ongoing investment and the availability of cheaperimported feed will support growth in the sector.

- Sugar consumption to 2020: 1.648mn tonnes. Low sugar prices and the rapid expansion of the localconfectionery and soft drinks sector will see an expansion in demand for sugar in the coming years.

- Corn consumption to 2020: 4.64mn tonnes. Domestic consumption of corn is set to increase as Peruimports more corn from Andean neighbours at a cheap price.

- Cocoa production to 2020: 98,000 tonnes. Cocoa production will increase as export demand remainsstable and investment is made into Peruvian cocoa infrastructure.

Table Of Contents

Peru Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Cocoa Outlook 11
Table: Peru - Cocoa Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Table: Cocoa Production and Consumption 14
Coffee Outlook 14
Table: Peru - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption 17
Sugar Outlook 17
Table: Peru Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption 20
Grains Outlook 21
Table: Peru Grain Production and Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 22
Table: Grain Production and Consumption 24
Livestock Outlook 24
Table: Peru Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 25
Table: Risks To Outlook 26
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption 27
Dairy Outlook 27
Table: Peru Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 28
Table: Risks To Outlook 29
Table: Dairy Production and Consumption 29
Commodities Price Analysis 31
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 31
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 31
Upstream Analysis 33
Americas GM Outlook 33
Americas Machinery Outlook 39
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 42
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 46
Downstream Analysis 52
Food 52
Food Consumption 52
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Peru 2012-2019) 54
Confectionary 54
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Peru 2012-2019) 55
Meat And Fish 57
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Peru 2012-2019) 57
Fish 58
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Peru 2012-2019) 58
Pasta 59
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Peru 2012-2019) 60
Oils And Fats 60
Table: Oils And Fats Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Peru 2012-2019) 61
Dairy 62
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Peru 2012-2019) 63
Regional Overview 64
Competitive Landscape 71
Table: Main Agribusiness Players 71
Demographic Forecast 72
Demographic Outlook 72
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Peru 1990-2025) 73
Table: Key Population Ratios (Peru 1990-2025) 73
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Peru 1990-2025) 74
Table: Population By Age Group (Peru 1990-2025) 74
Table: Population By Age Group % (Peru 1990-2025) 75
Methodology 77
Industry Forecast Methodology 77
Sector-Specific Methodology 78

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