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United States Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Corn and soybean production will decline year-on-year in the upcoming 2016/17 season, yetwill still count among the largest crops in US agricultural history. Livestock will see some mildimprovement in production growth owing to the poultry and beef sectors. Over the long term, the poultrysub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex and we see the strongest productiongrowth potential for soybean among the grains complex. We believe grains production will stagnate overalldue to a lower planted area on the back of lower prices.

Key Trends

- Beef production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 8.2% to 11.7mn tonnes. Production will improve overour forecast period due to heavier animal weights and as the sector's rebuilding phase is largely complete.

- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 9.3% to 23.3mn tonnes. The US is the world's second largestpoultry exporter, behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emergingmarkets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.

- Corn production growth to 2019/20: 3.3% to 373.2mn tonnes. Corn production growth will slow overthe next five years as opportunities to increase yields (such as through the adoption of geneticallymodified seeds) are waning. Most of the gains will be due to base effects.

- Soybean production growth to 2019/20: 3.5% to 109.9mn tonnes. Soybean production growth willalso slow prices due to reduced growth in plantings, while yields will suffer due to reduced input usage.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 2.2% y-o-y, down from 2.4% in 2015.

Table Of Contents

United States Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: United States - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: United States - Grains Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 14
Dairy Outlook 15
Latest Updates 15
Table: United States - Dairy Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: United States - Dairy Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 18
Soybean Outlook 19
Latest Updates 19
Table: United States - Soybean Production and Consumption Outlook 19
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 20
Table: United States - Soybean Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 22
Sugar Outlook 23
Latest Updates 23
Table: United States - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Risks To Outlook 23
Structural Trends 24
Table: United States - Sugar Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 25
Livestock Outlook 26
Latest Updates 26
Table: United States - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 26
Table: Risks To Outlook 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: United States - Beef, Pork and Poultry Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 30
Cotton Outlook 31
Latest Updates 31
Table: United States - Cotton Production and Consumption Outlook 31
Table: Risks To Outlook 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: United States - Cotton Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 36
Commodities Price Analysis 37
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 37
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 37
Upstream Analysis 39
Americas GM Outlook 39
Americas Machinery Outlook 45
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 48
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 52
Downstream Analysis 58
Food 58
Latest Updates 58
Structural Trends 59
Table: Food Sales (United States 2013-2020) 60
Regional Overview 62
Competitive Landscape 69
Table: United States Agribusiness Competitive Landscape 69
Demographic Forecast 70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United States 1990-2025) 71
Table: Key Population Ratios (United States 1990-2025) 71
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (United States 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group (United States 1990-2025) 72
Table: Population By Age Group % (United States 1990-2025) 73
Methodology 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sector-Specific Methodology 76

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