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  5. > Venezuela Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Venezuela Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 66 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The operating environment for Venezuela's agribusiness sector has deteriorated significantlyover recent years due to the poor macroeconomic climate, a shortage of foreign currency for inputpurchases and general government mismanagement. Venezuela's economy will continue to be underextreme downward pressure in 2016 amidst low international oil prices. The growing headwinds to theeconomy will weigh on agricultural production and consumption in the coming years, and we forecast mostcommodities to stagnate out to 2020. Producers of agricultural goods will struggle as rising productioncosts and controlled prices at the farm level reduce margins. As such, the divergence between Venezuelaand its neighbouring countries in terms of agricultural sector development will continue to grow in thecoming years.

Key Forecasts

- Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 3.0% to 515,000 60kg bags. Venezuela's coffee sector suffersfrom many structural weaknesses and is on the decline. Low profitability (due to government-mandatedprices), the lack of private and public investment and the rust disease will impede production fromgrowing.

- Poultry production growth to 2019/20: -7.7% to 563,000 tonnes. The sector is held back by a lack ofprofitability due to high input costs, inflation and government price controls, along with increasedcompetition from imports. The poultry industry will fare somewhat better than the beef sector, for whichthe outlook is especially bleak.

- Corn consumption growth to 2020: -1.0% to 3.6mn tonnes. Grains consumption is also feeling thepinch of economic woes and the decrease in foreign exchange, as Venezuela encounters problems withimporting grains. Demand in the medium term will remain lacklustre, amidst a low domestic grainssupply and weak growth in the livestock sector.

- 2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD24.95bn (down 6.2% from 2015; forecast to growannually by 1.5% on average from 2016 to 2020).

- 2016 real GDP growth: -5.5% (compared with -7.6% in 2015; forecast to grow annually by 0.5% onaverage between 2016 and 2020).

- 2016 consumer price index: 253% y-o-y (up from 116% in 2015; forecast to grow annually by 133% onaverage between 2016 and 2020).

Table Of Contents

Venezuela Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Venezuela - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Venezuela 2013-2020) 17
Coffee Outlook 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: Venezuela - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Venezuela 2013-2020) 21
Livestock Outlook 22
Latest Updates 22
Table: Venezuela - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Risks To Outlook 23
Structural Trends 24
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020) 25
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020) 26
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (Venezuela 2012-2020) 26
Commodity Strategy 27
Commodities Price Forecasts 27
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts 27
Upstream Analysis 29
Americas GM Outlook 29
Americas Machinery Outlook 35
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) 38
Americas Fertiliser Outlook 42
Downstream Analysis 48
Food 48
Latest Updates 48
Structural Trends 49
Table: Food Sales (Venezuela 2013-2020) 49
Regional Overview 52
Competitive Landscape 59
Table: Venezuela Agribusiness Competitive Landscape 59
Demographic Forecast 60
Demographic Outlook 2015 60
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025) 61
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025) 61
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025) 63
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Sector-Specific Methodology 66

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