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Philippines Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 73 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect robust growth in the power sector in the Philippines, with total generation expectedto expand by an average of 4.7% during our 10-year forecast period to 2025. With recovery from the 2013typhoon gathering pace, reasonable domestic economic growth and a range of new projects beingannounced, overall the future is looking positive for the Philippine power market.Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Notwithstanding the adverse effects that linger from Typhoon Haiyan that struck the Philippines in late2013, we still expect to see growth in the longer term, with a range of projects including coal-fired plantsand various renewable energy constructions in the pipeline. We forecast total electricity generationgrowth of 5.2% in 2016, reaching 81.7TWh. Further growth throughout the forecast period means totalgeneration is expected to reach 122TWh by 2025.

- Thermal energy will continue to dominate the energy market in the Philippines, accounting for over 70%of total electricity generation through our forecast period. Healthy growth is expected across coal, naturalgas and hydropower.

- The growth in electricity generation means we expect the Philippines will be able to keep up with theexpected increases in consumption, which we forecast will grow by about 5.0% a year, although thecountry is vulnerable to fluctuations and we believe the power situation will remain tenuous.

Table Of Contents

Philippines Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Philippines 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Philippines Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Philippines 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Philippines 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Philippines Power Forecast Scenario 11
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecasts 11
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecasts 12
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecasts 14
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecasts 15
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025) 22
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025) 24
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
Asia Power RRI: China's Score Slipping, India Pushing Ahead 25
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 32
Philippines Power Risk/Reward Index 33
Rewards 33
Risks 33
Market Overview 34
Key Policies And Market Structure 34
Regulation And Competition 34
Sustainable Energy Policies 36
Pricing 36
Philippines Power Projects Database 38
Table: Philippines Power Projects Database 38
Competitive Landscape 53
Napocor 54
The National Transmission Corporation (TransCo) 55
First Gen 56
Aboitiz Power 56
Ayala Corporation 57
Mirant 57
Meralco 58
EDC 59
AES 59
Regional Overview 60
Asia - Asia Power: Shifting Fuel Dynamics, Coal Still King 60
Glossary 67
Table: Glossary Of Terms 67
Methodology 68
Methodology And Sources 68
Industry Forecast Methodology 68
Sources 71
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 71
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 73

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