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Russia Consumer Electronics Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

BMI View:

Russia's consumer electronics market moved into negative territory in 2014 and then there was a sharp contraction in spending in 2015 as an intensification of economic crisis hit sentiment and resulted in steep rouble depreciation against the US dollar. The squeeze on Russian consumer purchasing power is evident in the deterioration of the household income profile, which is only forecast to partially recover previous highs by 2020. This underpins our relatively weak outlook for device sales growth considering the extent of declines in 2015 and pent-up device upgrade/replacement spending. Our core scenario envisages a consumer electronics spending CAGR of 5.6% over 2016-2020, but there is substantial uncertainty where a faster and sustained rise in oil prices offers upside, yet this should be balanced against downside from an escalation in political and security risks.


Latest Updates & Industry Developments
- Computer Hardware: USD5.4bn in 2016 to USD6.4bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3%. Our forecast for only a weak recovery in household purchasing power weighs on the outlook, but there is pent-up demand after the economic crisis in 2014-2016 and an increase in local production could also boost growth.
- AV: USD3.7bn in 2016 to USD4.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 4.2%. AV segment was hardest hit in 2015, but TV set upgrades based on smart, Ultra-HD and OLED technologies, particularly in 2018 when Russia hosts the FIFA World Cup, should return the market to growth over the medium term.
- Handsets: USD5.0bn in 2016 to USD6.8bn in 2020, a CAGR of 7.9%. The extent of crisis meant even the handset segment contracted sharply in 2015, but there is still potential for first-time smartphone upgrade purchases to drive outperformance of the handset segment once the economic environment improves.

Table Of Contents

Russia Consumer Electronics Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
Latest Updates and Industry Developments . 7
SWOT 9
Consumer Electronics Market .. 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Latest Updates ... 11
Structural Trends ... 11
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (Russia 2014-2020) 16
Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index . 17
Industry Risk/Rewards Index .. 17
Table: Europe CE Risk/Reward Index, Q3 2016 . 19
Market Overview ... 20
Recent Developments .. 20
Computers 20
Table: PC Sales (Russia 2014-2020) . 20
AV ... 26
Table: AV Sales (Russia 2014-2020) . 26
Mobile Handsets 31
Table: Mobile Communications (Russia 2014-2020) . 31
Industry Trends And Developments 39
Electronics Trade ... 39
Table: CEE Consumer Electronics (CE) Trade, 2010-2015 . 39
Table: Russia Consumer Electronics (CE) Trade, 2010-2015 . 40
Government Policy And Operational Risk ... 41
Industry Breakdown 42
Regulatory Development .. 45
Table: IT Authorities 45
Competitive Landscape 50
Retailers ... 50
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers . 50
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers . 50
Consumer Electronics Vendors . 51
Table: Huawei Technologies 51
Table: Lenovo . 52
Table: Foxconn . 53
Table: Explay . 54
Table: Yota Devices . 55
Demographic Forecast . 56
Demographic Outlook .. 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) . 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) . 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) . 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) 59
Methodology .. 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sector-Specific Methodology 62
Sources 62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 63
Sector-Specific Methodology 64
Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 65

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