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Bulgaria Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We currently forecast 1.8% y-o-y real growth this year, mainly due to infrastructure industry(particularly projects in the road and railway sub-sectors), since it is expected to expand by 2.2% y-o-y in2016 and it contributes more than 56% to the total construction. With EU-funded regional developmentprogramme over 2014-2020 underway, civil engineering is anticipated to remain the major growth driver ofthe construction industry. The development of the country's road and railway network with the support ofEU funds will continue as well as the implementation of energy projects.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Driven by transport infrastructure projects, we forecast Bulgaria's construction industry will grow by anaverage of 1.9% over 2016-2025.

- Bulgaria remains highly dependent on EU funding for infrastructure projects, particularly in the transportsector. As such, slow EU recovery will limit the speed of Bulgaria's transport infrastructure growth.

- Improved absorption of EU structural funding will be supported by public investment projects to a certainextent.

- World Bank will provide loans worth EUR550mn to Bulgaria for the next six years in order to supportfinancial stability, strengthen electricity sector and improve energy efficiency.

- In March 2016, the Bulgarian Development Bank received a EUR150mn loan from the Council ofEurope Development Bank (CEB) for energy efficiency projects (SeeNews, 2016).

- We do not expect investment in renewable energy infrastructure to increase given the Bulgariangovernment decided to terminate incentives for new renewable energy capacity in March 2015.

- The outlook for the residential sector is not positive, especially from 2019 onwards. The housing marketremains weak following a collapse in prices since 2008 and the high levels of indebtedness will act as aheadwind to future investment.

Table Of Contents

Bulgaria Infrastructure Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Bulgaria Construction Industry Forecast 5
Table: Bulgaria Infrastructure Risk/Reward 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 9
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2015-2025) 9
Structural Trends 10
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 15
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Bulgaria 2016-2025) 16
Table: Transport projects 25
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 26
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Bulgaria 2016-2025) 26
Table: Energy and Utilities Projects 36
Residential/NonResidential Building - Outlook And Overview 37
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Bulgaria 2015-2025) 37
Table: Construction And Social Infrastructure Key Projects 42
Industry Risk Reward Index 43
Bulgaria - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 43
Rewards 43
Risks 43
CEE Infrastructure RRI: EU Funding Essential As Risks Deter Private Investors 44
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 49
Market Overview 50
Competitive Landscape 50
Table: EQS Table 51
Company Profile 52
Glavbolgarstroy 52
Mott MacDonald 54
Methodology 57
Industry Forecast Methodology 57
Sector-Specific Methodology 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 62
Sector-Specific Methodology 63
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

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