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  5. > Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 81 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Our outlook on Azeri oil is heavily bearish, with the major ACG fields falling deeper intodecline. Investments to stabilise output will help soften the fall; however, with a lack of new discoveriesbrought online this will be insufficient to reverse the overall trend. In contrast, we remain bullish on theprospects for Azeri gas, underpinned by large-scale new production from Shah Deniz. Prospects on thedownstream remain poor, with ageing and low complexity infrastructure, a limited market for growth andweak prospects for investment.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- The country boasts substantial, prospective and underexplored acreage, in particular offshore in the SouthCaspian basin. SOCAR has also announced plans to restart onshore exploration, targeting ultra-deep oildeposits.

- A shortage of drilling rigs continues to delimit drilling activity in the Caspian Sea. A spate of explorationand appraisal, development and production wells are set to be spud between 2015 and 2017; SOCARneeds to secure additional drilling rigs in the coming quarters if it is to avoid the emergence of a majorbottleneck in its upstream.

- Oil output decreased in 2015, according to reports by SOCAR. In part this stemmed from plannedmaintenance works, but the bulk of the loss came from faster-than-expected depletion rates at the majorACG fields. We expect this trend to continue in 2016 and 2017, despite increased gas reinjectionboosting recovery.

- The gas sector is set for strong growth, driven in large part by development of the Shah Deniz II, whichreached FID in 2013 and is targeting first gas from 2018.

Table Of Contents

Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Azerbaijan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Oil Indexation In European Gas Contracts 22
Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 27
Refined Fuels Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 30
Gas Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Oil 34
Latest Updates 34
Crude Oil Trade 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Azerbaijan Crude Oil Assay 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2020) 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 38
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 40
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2014-2019) 43
Table: Gas Net Exports (Azerbaijan 2020-2025) 44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 45
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 45
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 46
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 46
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 49
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 49
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 51
Azerbaijan - Risk/Reward Index 53
Market Overview 54
Azerbaijan Energy Market Overview 54
Regulatory Structure 54
Licensing Regime 54
Fiscal Regime 54
Table: Azerbaijan PSC Main Fiscal Terms 55
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 56
Refineries 56
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Refineries 56
Oil Pipelines 56
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Pipelines 56
Gas Pipelines 56
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Pipelines 56
Oil Terminals and Ports 57
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Trade Facilities 57
Oil Storage Facilities 57
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Oil Storage Facilities 57
Gas Storage Facilities 57
Table: Azerbaijan - Main Gas Storage Facilities 57
Competitive Landscape 58
Competitive Landscape Summary 58
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies 60
Table: Key Upstream Players 60
Table: Key Downstream Players 61
Company Profile 62
SOCAR 62
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Azerbaijan 63
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 63
AIOC 64
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Azerbaijan 65
Regional Overview 66
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 66
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 66
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 67
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 68
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 69
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 70
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 71
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 72
Glossary 74
Table: Glossary Of Terms 74
Methodology 76
Industry Forecast Methodology 76
Source 78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 78
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 80
Table: Weighting 81

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