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Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 83 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for Kazakhstan's oil production, thanks to huge undergroundpotential and the delayed Kashagan field expected to come online by 2017, with the Tengiz project forecastto start production in 2021. Our forecasts for gas and refined products consumption remain subdued for2016 due to economic headwinds facing Kazakhstan; however we expect an uptick in growth from 2017onwards as the macros become more favourable.Key developments in Kazakhstan's oil & gas industry:

- The Kazakh Energy Ministry stated that it had plans to carry out additional evaluation work on Aktotyand Kairan fields, with further exploration work also expected to be done on the Kurmangazy field in2016.

- We expect oil production to be 1.67mn b/d in 2016, with steady increases forecast until 2022. The risksfor oil production lie to the upside, with plenty of room for expansion on a number of Kazakhstan'shydrocarbon rich fields.

- Kazakhstan contains extensive hydrocarbon potential that continues to attract some of the world's largestoil companies, giving us reason to believe that the country's oil and gas reserves will expand over ourforecast period.

- KMG EP announced in February that it has discovered oil on the North-Eastern flank of S. Nurzhanovfield. Two appraisal well are planned to be drilled in 2016-2017 and trial production is expected in 2018.

- Our house view on Kazakhstan's economic outlook has improved somewhat, mainly on the back of anupwards revision in our oil price outlook. However private final consumption growth is forecast to beonly 0.8% in real term this year keeping us bearish on fuels consumption this year.

- The upgrade to the Chevron operated Caspian Consortium Pipeline is due to be completed by the end of2016, boosting capacity to 1.4mn b/d.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Kazakhstan Major Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Oil Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 20
Upstream Production - Gas 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Gas Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 23
Refining 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 29
Gas Consumption 30
Latest Updates 30
Structural Trends 30
Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 32
Trade - Oil 33
Crude Oil Trade Outlook 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 35
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 41
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 41
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 41
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 42
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 42
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 45
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 45
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 47
Kazakhstan - Risk/Reward Index 49
Upstream Index - Rewards 49
Upstream Index - Risks 49
Downstream Index - Rewards 49
Downstream Index - Risks 50
Market Overview 51
Kazakhstan Energy Market Overview 51
Regulatory Structure 51
Fiscal Regime 51
Table: Kazakhstan Fiscal Regime 52
Licensing Regime 52
Table: Kazakhstan Licensing Regime 53
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 55
Oil Refineries 55
Table: Major Refineries In Kazakhstan 56
Oil Terminals/Ports 58
Oil Pipelines 58
Gas Storage Facilities 60
Gas Pipelines 60
Competitive Landscape 62
Competitive Landscape Summary 62
Company Profile 65
KMG 65
Latest Updates 65
Table: Key Assets 66
Regional Overview 68
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 68
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 68
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 69
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 70
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 71
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 72
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 73
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 74
Glossary 76
Table: Glossary Of Terms 76
Methodology 78
Industry Forecast Methodology 78
Source 80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 80
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 82
Table: Weighting 83

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