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Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 81 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: A volatile security situation and continuing geopolitical tensions hamper exploration andproduction activities in Ukraine. Regulatory challenges, illustrated by recent tax hikes on oil, gas andmineral extraction, are expected to act as a further deterrent to investment in Ukraine's oil and gas sector.Despite Ukraine's significant gas supply diversification efforts, we expect the country will continue todepend to some extent on Russian gas supplies over the coming winters.

Key forecasts and developments:

- We maintain our forecasts for oil and gas reserves this quarter. However, we note that Chevron andShell's exits from their respective shale gas exploration projects create increasing downside risk to ourgas reserves forecasts.

- Downside risk to oil production exists over the coming year from a tax dispute between Ukrnafta and theUkrainian state. In March 2016 the company received a formal notification from the State Service ofGeology & Mineral Resources of Ukraine that 16 of its licenses could be suspended, in addition to threerecent suspensions. According to the company, the suspension of these licenses would stop production ofabout 6,500b/d of crude oil, a significant proportion of the company's production and of the country'stotal 38,000b/d crude and condensates production in 2016.

- Most of Ukraine's refineries remain closed as of 2016, leading to a severe underutilisation of its refiningcapacity. We maintain this situation will endure until an amelioration in the political, economic andsecurity situation comes through.

- Given the country's disastrous refining sector, crude net imports have fallen substantially over the pastdecade and are expected to remain low over the coming decade. Nevertheless, this has also translated intoincreasing refined products import requirements, as domestic production is insufficient to meet demand.Net imports of refined products will pick up speed as consumption recovers. This is unlikely to changeunless the refining sector undergoes a significant revamp.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Ukraine 14
Upstream Production - Oil 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2020-2025) 17
Upstream Production - Gas 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2014-2019) 21
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2020-2025) 21
Refining 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2014-2019) 24
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2020-2025) 24
Refined Fuel Consumption 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2014-2019) 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2020-2025) 27
Gas Consumption 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2014-2019) 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Oil 32
Crude Oil 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2020) 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025) 34
Refined Fuels 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2019) 36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025) 36
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Reverse Flow Gas Pipeline Connection Capacity From EU To Ukraine 40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2014-2019) 41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2020-2025) 41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 42
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 42
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 42
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 43
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 43
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 45
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 46
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 48
Ukraine - Risk/Reward Index 50
Market Overview 52
Ukraine Energy Market Overview 52
Regulatory Structure 52
Fiscal Regime 53
Table: Ukraine Fiscal Regime Terms 53
Licensing Regime 54
Table: Ukraine Licensing Regime 55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 56
Oil Refineries 56
Table: Refineries In Ukraine 56
Oil Pipelines 57
LNG Terminals 58
Gas Storage 59
Gas Pipelines 59
Competitive Landscape 62
Competitive Landscape Summary 62
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector 63
Table: Key Upstream Players 63
Table: Key Downstream Players 63
Company Profile 64
Naftogaz Ukrainy 64
Company Overview 64
Table: Key Financial Data (UAHmn) 65
Regional Overview 66
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 66
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 66
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 67
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 68
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 69
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 70
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 71
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 72
Glossary 74
Table: Glossary Of Terms 74
Methodology 76
Industry Forecast Methodology 76
Source 78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 78
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 80
Table: Weighting 81

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