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  5. > Brazil Power Report Q3 2016

Brazil Power Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 69 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain that the Brazilian electricity market will offer opportunities to risk-tolerant projectdevelopers and power sector investors over the coming years, despite the country's deepening economicrecession in 2016. The renewables and hydropower sectors will present the biggest potential tointernational investors, but we see opportunities also in power transmission and distribution. We alsohighlight, however, that lower power consumption, coupled with high financing and import costs will besignificant risks to operating in the country in the short run.Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Brazil's economic crisis has started to reduce investment in new power projects and to threaten theimplementation of those already planned, as a result of a contraction in power consumption and higherfinancing and import costs for project developers. These factors - coupled with an ongoing investigationon state-run utility Eletrobras, which could result in delays and asset impairments - have brought us todowngrade our forecast for growth in the natural gas, renewables and nuclear power sector this quarter.

- We expect weaker growth in Brazil's natural gas-fired power generation in 2016 and through 2025 as aresult of both greater hydropower generation and market dynamics.

In particular, in a context of lowerpower consumption - due to weaker economic growth - our projections for growth in hydropower andrenewables generation indicate that Brazil will need to rely less on thermal power generation than we hadpreviously expected. Supporting this view, only one gas-fired power project was contracted at Brazil'slatest A-5 New Energy auction, held in April.

- We maintain a relatively positive long-term outlook for Brazil's renewables sector, due to continuedgovernment support for the industry and resilient investor interest. However, this quarter we have seenthe first negative impacts of the country's economic crisis on the wind and solar power sectors. No windpower projects were contracted in April at the A-5 energy auction, despite a large number of projects hadbeen registered ahead of the tender. Moreover, also in April, Brazilian and international projectdevelopers accounting for the majority of the solar capacity contracted in 2014 asked to postpone the datein which their projects are supposed to start operations, from 2017 to 2019. The companies said that theslump in the Brazilian real and lack of local supplies have made the project development economicallyunfeasible.

Table Of Contents

Brazil Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Brazil 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Brazil Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Brazil 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Brazil Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Results For Gas-Fired Projects In Latest Power Auctions 14
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 21
Table: Solar and Wind Capacity Registered And Contracted In Recent And Upcoming Auctions 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 27
Electricity Consumption 28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 30
Transmission and Distribution 30
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 33
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2019) 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Brazil 2020-2025) 33
Industry Risk/Reward Index 34
Latin America - LatAm RRI: Argentina Gaining Amid Chile's Continued Outperformance 34
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 40
Brazil Power Risk/Reward Index 41
Rewards 41
Risks 41
Market Overview 43
Key Policies And Market Structure 43
Regulation And Competition 43
Sustainable Energy Policies 44
Pricing 45
Table: Tariff Surcharges Before And After Reduction 46
Brazil Power Projects Database 46
Competitive Landscape 49
Eletrobras 49
Tractebel Energia 51
Company Profile 53
Eletrobrás 53
Regional Overview 57
Latin America - LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 57
Table: BMI's Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond 62
Glossary 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Methodology 64
Methodology And Sources 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sources 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 69

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