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  4. > Chile Power Report Q3 2016

Chile Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Chile's power market will be one of the most attractive and dynamic in Latin America over thenext few years, owing to the country's stable business environment and investor-friendly regulations, a solidmacroeconomic outlook and robust growth in power consumption. The government's use of energy auctionsfor the regulated market, coupled with energy demand from miners located far from the main powernetwork, will create long-term business opportunities for power generators. Meanwhile, the need to expandChile's power grid will drive demand for transmission infrastructure.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The latest investment plans of major international energy companies operating in Chile have strengthenedour positive outlook for the country's power sector. Spain's Gas Natural Fenosa and Red Eléctrica andItaly's Enel will all increase their exposure to the market over the next few quarters.

- Popular opposition to the development of large-scale hydropower projects remains a key downside risk toour forecast for the hydropower sector. In particular, we highlight hostility to the completion of the531MW Alto Maipo hydropower complex remains strong, although construction of the project isprogressing.

- A bill presented by the government in 2015 to reorganise the structure of Chile's power transmissionsector is currently under consideration by the Senate. The document was approved by the lower house ofthe parliament in January 2015. The bill aims to accelerate the development process of new powertransmission lines and facilite investment in the sector. We expect the government to push for the newregulation to be approved ahead of the July-August 2016 energy auction for the regulated power market.

- It was announced that Gas Natural Fenosa and E-CL are considering building gas-fired power plants inChile. This development, together with a significant pipeline of projects already under construction andplanned, supports our positive growth outlook for gas-fired power generation in Chile over the next 10years. Our forecast is also premised on the construction of an LNG import terminal, low international gasprices and the government's commitment to increasing the role of gas in Chile's energy matrix.

Table Of Contents

Chile Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Chile 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Chile Snaphot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Chile 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Chile Forecast Scenario 12
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Natural Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Table: Chile's Major Hydropower Project Pipeline 19
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 22
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2014-2019) 22
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Chile 2020-2025) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2014-2019) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Chile 2020-2025) 24
Electricity Consumption 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Chile 2020-2025) 25
Transmission and Distribution 25
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2014-2019) 28
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Chile 2020-2025) 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
Latin America - LatAm RRI: Argentina Gaining Amid Chile's Continued Outperformance 29
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 35
Chile Power Risk/Reward Index 36
Rewards 36
Risks 36
Market Overview 38
Key Policies And Market Structure 38
Regulation And Competition 38
Sustainable Energy Policies 40
Pricing 40
Chile Power Projects Database 41
Competitive Landscape 44
Transelec 44
Enersis 45
ENAP 45
Engie 46
AES 46
Colbún 47
Pacific Hydro 47
Others 48
Company Profile 49
Enersis 49
Regional Overview 52
Latin America - LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 52
Table: BMI's Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond 57
Glossary 58
Table: Glossary Of Terms 58
Methodology 59
Methodology And Sources 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Sources 62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 62
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

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