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Bahrain Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Despite limited success in boosting oil and gas production from the Bahrain field, the keydevelopment for the country will be the refining capacity expansion at the kingdom's centrepiece Sitrarefinery. However, delays to the expansion will result in a continuation of fuel export declines and awidening of the country's fiscal deficit until 2020. This marks a two-year delayto our previous forecast which saw increasing fuel exports from 2018. We also note downside risk to ourcrude oil and gas production forecasts on the back of Mubadala and Occidental's withdrawal from theTatweer joint venture (JV) currently redeveloping the Bahrain field.Latest Updates and Key Forecasts We highlight the following trends and developments in Bahrain's oil and gas sector:

- Redevelopment work (new wells, enhanced oil recovery and improved oil recovery) undertaken at theBahrain field are boosting oil production at the mature field. While we expect some success, the lowpermeability of the heavy oil reservoirs, among other issues, have led us to anticipate delays. We havenot yet included all volumes projected by the project.

- Redevelopment work at the Bahrain field could slow or stagnate altogether over the coming years. It wasreported in May 2016 that Mubadala Petroleum and Occidental Petroleum have agreed withNogaholding to pull out of the 20 year JV Tatweer Petroleum. We will wait to see whether thegovernment manages to find a replacement before deciding on how these changes will impactredevelopment and exploration works at the field, and before changing our forecast as a result.

Table Of Contents

Bahrain Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Bahrain 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2014-2019) 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Bahrain 2020-2025) 11
Upstream Production - Oil 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) 16
Table: Oil Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) 16
Upstream Production - Gas 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) 20
Table: Gas Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) 20
Refining 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Bahrain 2020-2025) 26
Refined Fuels Consumption 27
Latest Updates 27
Structural Trends 27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bahrain 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Bahrain 2020-2025) 30
Gas Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Bahrain 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Oil 34
Crude Oil 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2020) 36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) 36
Refined Fuels 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019) 38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) 38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2014-2019) 39
Table: Gas Net Exports (Bahrain 2020-2025) 39
Latest Updates 39
Structural Trends 40
Industry Risk Reward Index 43
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 43
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 44
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 44
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 46
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Bahrain - Risk/Reward Index 49
Market Overview 51
Bahrain Energy Market Overview 51
Regulatory Structure 51
Fiscal Regime 52
Licensing Regime 52
Table: Bahrain Licensing Regime 52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 53
Oil Refineries 53
Table: Refineries In Bahrain 53
Oil Storage Facilities 54
Service Stations 54
Oil Pipelines 54
Gas Pipelines 55
LNG Terminals 55
Competitive Landscape 56
Competitive Landscape Summary 56
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Bahrain Oil and Gas Sector 57
Table: Key Upstream Players 57
Table: Key Downstream Players 57
Company Profile 58
BAPCO 58
Company Overview 58
Latest Company Updates 58
Table: Major Downstream Assets in Bahrain 59
Regional Overview 60
Middle East Oil and Gas Regional Overview 60
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging 60
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth 62
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 and March 2016 (Usd/Litre) 62
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market 64
Gas Production: In Need Of More Gas 65
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 67
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade 68
Glossary 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Source 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 75
Table: Weighting 76

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