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Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Turkey will continue to increase its consumption of crude oil, natural gas and refined fuelsthroughout our medium-term forecast period to 2020, remaining a net importer of all three. Positiveexploration results in the Thrace Basin present upside risk to our gas production forecast.The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

- With Russian-Turkish relations in a precarious state, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated thatmoving away from Russian energy dependence is a priority, with Turkey importing more than 50% of itsnatural gas and 11% of crude oil from Russia in 2015. However, we anticipate little change to Russia'sprominent role in Turkey's energy mix as, according to our Turkey Country Risk analysts, politicalrhetoric seldom has real economic implications.

- The positive exploration results in the Thrace Basin show good prospectivity with the potential of furthergas discoveries presenting upside risk. Over the long term we forecast natural gas production to fall, asoutput from conventional fields declines. Valeura Energy started selling gas from its Bati Gurgen 1 welladding an additional 0.034bcm to Turkey's gas production, raising it by 6.7%. Shell and TPAOcompleted the Sile-1 exploration well in the Black Sea in June 2015 and are currently evaluating results.Downside risk to development comes from capex cuts that all oil companies, to include Shell, areundertaking, leaving the ultra-deep and therefore very expensive Sile-1 particularly vulnerable.

- In August 2015, construction began on a port for the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic(SOCAR)'s Star Oil Refinery in Turkey. Work on Star Refinery is progressing rapidly, with SOCARhaving spent USD2bn on the project so far, according to SOCAR Turkey President Kenan Yavuz.

Table Of Contents

Turkey Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Turkey - Key Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 14
Latest Updates 14
Structural Trends 14
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2014-2019) 16
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2020-2025) 16
Upstream Production - Gas 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 18
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2014-2019) 18
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2020-2025) 19
Refining 20
Latest Updates 20
Structural Trends 20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2014-2019) 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2020-2025) 22
Refined Fuels Consumption 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2020-2025) 25
Gas Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2014-2019) 27
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2020-2025) 28
Trade - Oil 29
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2020) 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) 31
Fuels Trade Forecast 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) 33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019) 37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025) 38
Industry Risk Reward Index 39
Turkey - Risk/Reward Index 39
Turkey Upstream Index 39
Turkey Downstream Index 39
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 40
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 40
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 41
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 41
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 44
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 44
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 46
Market Overview 48
Turkey Energy Market Overview 48
Regulatory Structure 48
Fiscal Regime 49
Table: Turkey - Upstream Tax Regime 49
Licensing Regime 49
Table: Turkey - Contracts and Licensing Regime 49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 50
Oil Refineries 50
Table: Oil Refineries In Turkey 50
Service Stations 51
Oil Terminals/Ports 51
Oil Pipelines 51
LNG Terminals 52
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey 52
Gas Pipelines 52
Gas Storage 54
Competitive Landscape 55
Competitive Landscape Summary 55
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil and Gas Sector 56
Table: Key Upstream Players 56
Company Profile 57
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO) 57
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Turkey 58
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tüpras) 59
Table: Key Assets 60
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 60
Regional Overview 61
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 61
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 61
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 62
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 63
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 64
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 65
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 66
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 67
Glossary 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Source 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 75
Table: Weighting 76

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