Poland Agribusiness Industry Update Quarter 3 2012

  • July 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 124 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain our projection for Poland's grain production to fall in 2012/13, with the effect of winter-kill cancelling the effect of higher plantings. The recent decision by the European Commission to lift a ban on chicken meat imported from Thailand could decrease the share of Ukrainian or Russian exports into Poland. For sugar and dairy, financial support as well as segment reforms imposed by the EU are likely to help production to recover strongly over our projection period.

Key Projections
- Corn production growth to 2015/16: 22.0% to 2.2mn tonnes. The EU's Rural Development Plan from 2007 to 2013, for which Poland has a budget of Euros 17.2bn, will encourage consolidation, modernisation of agricultural holdings and infrastructure improvements in the country's grains farms, boosting yields of all three grains.
- Poultry consumption growth to 2016: 10.6% to 1.0mn tonnes. Poultry is considered a lowerfat and healthier alternative to other meats. It is also often used in ready-to-eat meals, increasingly popular with busy Polish shoppers.
- Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 16.3% to 12.0mn tonnes. Polish sugar producers will most likely be encouraged to increase output as EU reforms of the sugar segment come gradually online until full abolition of sugar production quotas in 2015. That said, restrictions put on the EU's subsidies budget are expected to weigh on growth.
- 2012 real Gross Domestic Product growth: 2.5% (down from 4.3% in 2011; predicted to average 3.9% over 2011- 2016).
- Consumer price inflation: 4.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average for 2012 (slightly down from 4.3% y-o-y for 2011).
- BMI universe agribusiness industry value: 3.4% y-o-y decline to US Dollar 18.1bn in 2011/12, projection to increase on average by 0.2% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Industry Developments The EU is expected to authorise another wave of zero-duty imports in the coming months on the back of a smaller expected 2012/13 wheat harvest and as it looks to protect margins of the EU's livestock farmers.
The European Commission announced that it would allow a further 1.2mn tonnes of feed wheat to enter the EU by the end of June without tariffs. Many countries, including Poland, are in favour of the imports allowance because it will make it cheaper for livestock producers to buy feed grain. The move will go ahead even though some large grain producers voted against it. The zero-tariff opening is intended for H212 and will double the 1.2mn-tonne allowance already put in place in H112.
The confectionery industry in Poland has been growing at a steady annual rate, boosted by industry ing, novel product launches, a rise in snacking and the traditional fondness for sweets. The leading industry players in the industry include foreign majors, namely the UK's Cadbury (now owned by US behemoth Kraft Foods), Nestlé, Lindt & Sprungli and Barry Callebaut, with Wrigley Poland also having a notable presence.
The recent decision by the Directorate-General for Health and Consumers of the European Commission to lift the ban on chicken meat imported from Thailand is not expected to affect local producers, as they are focused on the fresh chicken industry and are protected by strict industry ing standards. For Poland specifically, the entry of Thai poultry could decrease the share of exports from Ukraine or Russia as both countries also get access to the EU industry . We believe Thai exports are more comparable to Ukraine's or Russia's than to Brazil's or Argentina's because of their lower quality and price.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
Industry SWOT Analysis . 7
Poland Agriculture Swot 7
Poland Business Environment SWOT 8
Supply Demand Analysis 9
Poland Grains Outlook ... 9
Data : Poland Wheat Production and Consumption, from 2011 to 2016 10
Data : Poland Corn Production and Consumption, from 2011 to 2016 .. 10
Data : Poland Barley Production and Consumption, from 2011 to 2016 ... 10
Data : Poland Wheat Production and Consumption, from 2007 to 2012 13
Data : Poland Corn Production and Consumption, from 2007 to 2012 .. 13
Data : Poland Barley Production and Consumption, from 2007 to 2012 ... 14
Poland Livestock Outlook . 14
Data : Poland Poultry Production and Consumption, from 2011 to 2016 .. 15
Data : Poland Pork Production and Consumption, from 2011 to 2016 .. 15
Data : Poland Beef and Veal Production and Consumption, from 2011 to 2016 ... 16
Data : Poland Poultry Production and Consumption, from 2007 to 2012 .. 18
Data : Poland Pork Production and Consumption, from 2007 to 2012 .. 18
Data : Poland Beef and Veal Production and Consumption, from 2007 to 2012 ... 18
Poland Dairy Outlook ... 19
Data : Poland Milk Production and Consumption, from 2011 to 2016 ... 20
Data : Poland Butter Production and Consumption, from 2011 to 2016 20
Data : Poland Cheese Production and Consumption, from 2011 to 2016 .. 20
Data : Poland Milk Production and Consumption, from 2007 to 2012 ... 22
Data : Poland Butter Production and Consumption, from 2007 to 2012 22
Data : Poland Cheese Production and Consumption, from 2007 to 2012 .. 22
Poland Rice Outlook . 23
Data : Poland Rice Consumption, from 2011 to 2016 . 23
Data : Poland Rice Consumption, from 2007 to 2012 . 24
Poland Sugar Outlook... 24
Data : Poland Sugar Production and Consumption, from 2011 to 2016 25
Data : Poland Sugar Production and Consumption, from 2007 to 2012 28
Commodity Price Analysis 30
Monthly Softs Update 30
Cocoa: Signs Of Life 31
Coffee: Holding Key Support ... 33
Palm Oil: Uptrend Intact . 35
Sugar: Watching Brazilian Yields 36
Cotton: Downside Risks ... 38
Data : Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Projections .. 39
Monthly Grains Update 40
Wheat: Upside Risks Materialising .. 41
Corn: Moderation In Place .. 43
Soybean: Looking Weak ... 45
Rice: Temporary Strength 47
Data : Commodity Performance .. 48
Upstream Analysis . 49
Europe Fertilizer Outlook . 49
GM and Europe: Growth In Plantings Restricted But Imports To Pick Up . 52
EMEA Machinery: Emerging Europe Has Strong Potential . 56
Downstream Analysis 59
Food.. 59
Data : Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Projections .. 61
Meat . 61
Data : Bacon and Ham ... 61
Data : Sausage 62
Fish .. 63
Data : Fish ... 63
Frozen Fruit and Vegetables .. 64
Data : Frozen Fruit and Vegetables ... 64
Pasta 66
Data : Pasta . 66
Confectionery... 67
Data : Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Projections .. 68
Drink . 69
Alcoholic Drinks .. 69
Data : Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Projections .. 69
Soft Drinks ... 72
Data : Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Projections ... 73
Hot Drinks ... 74
Data : Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Projections ... 74
Mass Grocery Retail . 76
Data : Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format - Historical Data and Projections ... 77
Trade ... 77
Data : Trade Indicators - Historical Data and Projections ... 78
Poland Demographic Data. 79
Data : Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) . 80
Data : Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 81
Data : Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 82
Data : Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .. 82
BMI Projection Modelling . 83
How We Generate Our Market Projections ... 83

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