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  5. > Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 70 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Czech Republic will remain highly dependent on imported oil and gas, mostly from Russia,as conventional hydrocarbons production potential is limited. However the country will manage to slowlydiversify its gas sources through the STORK II project linking the country to Poland. This will provide itwith access to Polish gas and imported LNG from the ?winouj'cie liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal.

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

- While the country's shale gas potential could be promising, a moratorium on shale gas exploration andpublic opposition to the practice make exploration unlikely in the near-to-medium term.

- The Czech Republic produces negligible volumes of domestic gas or oil, with limited upside risk tofuture production, meaning the country will remain significantly dependent on Russian hydrocarbonimports within our forecast period.

- The country is a small consumer of refined fuels. We forecast a relatively strong rise in refined fuelsconsumption over the first half of our forecast period, pulled up by the robust growth in vehicle growthand a strong industrial sector.

- The country imports most of its required crude oil from Russia and is a small net importer of refinedproducts. We expect the Czech Republic will continue to be largely dependent on Russian crude imports,while the country will see an increase in refined products net import requirements to answer risingdomestic demand over our forecast period.

- Current production at the Litvínov refinery continues running at a significantly reduced capacityfollowing an explosion at the neighbouring petrochemical complex in August 2015. A return to fullproduction is unlikely before Q316. This has therefore likely impacted H215 refined fuels production andwill likely impact 2016 production. We therefore point to downside risk to our 2015 refined fuelsproduction estimate and to our 2016 forecast. Similarly, this yields upside risk to refined fuel net importsfor 2015 and 2016, and downside risks to net crude oil imports on the back of lower crude oil feedthrough.

Table Of Contents

Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Czech Republic 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Upstream Production - Oil 13
Table: Oil Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 14
Table: Oil Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 14
Upstream Production - Gas 15
Table: Gas Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 16
Table: Gas Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 16
Refining 17
Latest Updates 17
Structural Trends 17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 20
Refined Fuels Consumption 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 22
Gas Consumption 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Gas Consumption (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 25
Table: Gas Consumption (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 25
Trade - Oil 26
Crude Trade Forecast 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2020) 28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 28
Refined Fuels Trade Forecast 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 30
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Gas Net Exports (Czech Republic 2014-2019) 33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Czech Republic 2020-2025) 34
Industry Risk Reward Index 35
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 35
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 35
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 36
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 36
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 38
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 39
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 41
Czech Republic - Risk/Reward Index 43
Upstream Index - Overview 43
Upstream Index - Rewards 43
Upstream Index - Risks 44
Downstream Index - Overview 44
Market Overview 45
Energy Market Overview 45
Regulatory Structure 45
Upstream Fiscal And Licensing Regime 45
Operational Environment 45
Political Environment 46
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 47
Oil Refineries 47
Table: Refineries In Czech Republic 47
Service Stations 47
Oil Storage Facilities 48
Oil Pipeline 48
Gas Storage Facilities 49
Gas Pipelines 50
Competitive Landscape 52
Competitive Landscape Summary 52
Table: Key Players - Czech Oil And Gas Sector 53
Table: Key Upstream Player 53
Table: Key Downstream Players 54
Regional Overview 55
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 55
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 55
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 56
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 57
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 58
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 59
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 60
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 61
Glossary 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Source 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 69
Table: Weighting 70

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