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Romania Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 76 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Investment into E&P is waning as major offshore drilling programmes have concluded, thoughfield redevelopment projects continue over the short term. Refinery output demand and fuels demand haveboth improved on the back of lower oil prices.

The main trends and developments for Romania's oil and gas sector are:

- The conclusion of the ExxonMobil/OMV Neptun Block drilling programme should support a finalinvestment decision on the Domino project in 2016. Early indications are expecting an increase inpotential resources above the 42-84bcm initial estimate. As of May 2016, there is no further informationon hypothetical development plans.Lukoil is due to follow up its estimated 30bcm gas discovery at theLira-1X well with an appraisal in 2016.

- OMV Petrom is continuing its 12 field redevelopment programme to mitigate production decline thoughit has only committed to a further four new projects to 2017.

- Oil output dropped slightly to around 78,830b/d over 2015 and we forecast production to remainrelatively stable over the coming two years before falling past 2018.

- Romania has increased refined product exports over 2014-2015, with strong refining margins supportingincreased output. Strong domestic consumption however has prevented a stronger refined products exportsurge over 2015.

- Imports of crude oil remained stable over 2015 and we expect this to remain stable over the coming yearsgiven our forecast for steady refined products output.

- After strong consumption growth over 2014 and 2015, we anticipate a stagnation in consumption over thecoming years as the Romanian economy becomes more efficient and energy-intensive industries reduceusage.

- Industrial gas customers have entered the free market as of January 1 2015. Full liberalisation of the gasmarket including households has been postponed to July 2021.

Table Of Contents

Romania Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Romania 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Romania Major Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 16
Latest Updates 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Oil Production (Romania 2014-2019) 18
Table: Oil Production (Romania 2020-2025) 18
Upstream Production - Gas 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Gas Production (Romania 2014-2019) 21
Table: Gas Production (Romania 2020-2025) 21
Refining 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Romania 2014-2019) 25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Romania 2020-2025) 25
Refined Fuels Consumption 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Romania 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Romania 2020-2025) 28
Gas Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Gas Consumption (Romania 2014-2019) 31
Table: Gas Consumption (Romania 2020-2025) 31
Trade - Oil 32
Latest Updates 32
Structural Trends 32
Crude Oil 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Romania 2014-2019) 33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Romania 2020-2025) 34
Refined Products 34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Romania 2014-2019) 35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Romania 2020-2025) 35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Romania 2014-2019) 38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Romania 2020-2025) 38
Industry Risk/Reward Index 39
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 39
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 39
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 40
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 40
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 42
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 43
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 45
Romania Risk/Reward Index 47
Romania Upstream Index 47
Romania Downstream Index 48
Market Overview 49
Romania Energy Market Overview 49
Licensing And Regulation 49
Fiscal Regime 49
Table: Key Tax Rates Of Romanian Oil And Gas 49
Government Policy 50
Licensing Rounds 50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 51
Oil Refineries 51
Table: Refineries In Romania 51
Service Stations 52
Oil Terminals 52
Oil Pipelines 52
Gas Storage 53
Gas Pipelines 53
Table: International Natural Gas Pipelines 53
Competitive Landscape 54
Competitive Landscape Summary 54
Table: Key Players - Romania Oil and Gas Sector 56
Table: Key Upstream Players 56
Table: Key Downstream Players 56
Company Profile 57
OMV Petrom 57
Latest Updates 57
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Romania 58
Table: Key Financial Data (RONmn) 58
Lukoil 59
Latest Updates 59
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Romania 60
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 60
Regional Overview 61
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 61
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 61
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 62
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 63
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 64
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 65
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 66
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 67
Glossary 69
Table: Glossary Of Terms 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Source 73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 73
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 75
Table: Weighting 76

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