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  5. > Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 78 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Steady payments from the government have helped maintain oil production growth over 2016though at a slower pace to 2015. Natural gas imports from Iran in 2016 will play a significant role inmeeting pent up demand from the power sector, while exports are set from the KRG to Turkey in 2019.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Iraq's oil and gas sector:

- January-April oil production in Iraq has averaged 4.3mn b/d, with 3.3mn b/d exported from Basra and0.45mn b/d from the KRG.

- Steady payments from both the central government and KRG have supported investment in productionmaintenance, though pending approvals for 2016 IOC investment plans will limit growth.

- Shell supplied associated gas from its Majnoon field to the power sector for the first time in February, ata rate of around 715mn cubic metres per year.

- Genel is expecting the field development plan for the Miran/Bina Bawi development to be approved inQ216.

- Work has reportedly begun on construction of the Chinese-backed 150,000b/d Missan refinery, which isexpected to start up in 2019.

- The newly established Dhi Qar oil company is looking to revive the Nassiriyah oilfield and refineryproject.

- We forecast Iraq to be a net importer of natural gas from 2016-2018, with exports to Diyala and Baghdaddue to begin from Iran, though warn levels could be limited due to a recent attack on a gas plant.

- We see upside risk to Iraqi gas consumption from 2017 if the latest 20-35mn cubic metres per day gasimport deal from Iran to Basra is realised.

Table Of Contents

Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Iraq 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 10
Table: Kurdistan Blocks And Operator 12
Upstream Projects 14
Table: Iraq - Major Upstream Projects 14
Upstream Production - Oil 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2014-2019) 21
Table: Oil Production (Iraq 2020-2025) 22
Upstream Production - Gas 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2014-2019) 25
Table: Gas Production (Iraq 2020-2025) 25
Refining 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends 26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2014-2019) 28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Iraq 2020-2025) 28
Refined Fuels Consumption 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iraq 2014-2019) 32
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Iraq 2020-2025) 32
Gas Consumption 33
Latest Updates 33
Structural Trends 33
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2014-2019) 35
Table: Gas Consumption (Iraq 2020-2025) 35
Trade - Oil 36
Latest Updates 36
Crude Oil Trade Outlook 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: Basra Splits 38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2020) 38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025) 38
Refined Fuels Trade Outlook 39
Structural Trends 39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019) 40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025) 41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2014-2019) 44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Iraq 2020-2025) 44
Industry Risk Reward Index 45
Middle East - Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 45
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment 46
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 46
Downstream: Limited Opportunities 48
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 48
Iraq - Risk/Reward Index 51
Market Overview 52
Iraq Energy Market Overview 52
Regulatory Structure 52
Fiscal Regime 52
Table: Federal Government Technical Service Agreements 52
Table: KRG Production Sharing Agreements 53
Licensing Regime 53
Licensing Rounds 53
Table: Fields Licensed Under First Bidding Round (June 2009) 53
Table: Fields Licensed Under Second Bidding Round (December 2009) 54
Table: Fields Licensed Under Third Bidding Round (October 2010) 54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 56
Oil Refineries 56
Table: Iraqi Refineries 56
Table: Planned Refineries In Iraq 57
Oil Terminals/Ports 57
Oil Pipelines 58
Table: Major Iraqi Pipelines 58
Gas Pipelines 58
Competitive Landscape 60
Competitive Landscape Summary 60
Regional Overview 62
Middle East Oil and Gas Regional Overview 62
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging 62
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth 64
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 and March 2016 (Usd/Litre) 64
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market 66
Gas Production: In Need Of More Gas 67
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand 69
Table: Middle East Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade 70
Glossary 71
Table: Glossary Of Terms 71
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Source 75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 75
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 77
Table: Weighting 78

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