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Bulgaria Mining Report 2016

  • March 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 44 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Bulgaria's mining sector is relatively underdeveloped for a country of its size and isconsiderably smaller than those of the other Central and Eastern European nations, including Romania andPoland. Mining activity in the country is currently focused on two core minerals, coal and copper. Bothsub-sectors are heavily consolidated with one key company dominating production in both cases. Expansionin mining production will be relatively moderate over the forecast period to 2020 as, with the majority ofmined production used for domestic usage, there is relatively little incentive to expand capacity. That said,the sector is better insulated against global headwinds, namely the ongoing contraction in globalcommodity prices, than those of larger countries.

Latest Updates And Forecasts:

- We have revised our outlook for coal mining upwards in reflection of ongoing expansion plans by stateownedmining company Maritsa Iztok EAD; we forecast coal production to grow by 1.4% in 2016 andby 1.5% a year on average through to 2020 to reach just under 39mn tonnes.

- Bulgaria's government is also reportedly devising a national mining strategy that seeks to support thesustainable development of the industry through to 2020. Coal mining, in particular, plays a key role interms of power generation in the country and is likely to remain an important industry going forward.

- We remain below consensus with regard to the pricing of Bulgaria's two key minerals, thermal coal andcopper, however. We forecast average thermal coal prices to fall to USD59/tonne in 2016, while the priceof copper will slip to USD5,400/tonne. We see the current low-price environment persisting through to2020, with moderate growth occurring during this period.

Table Of Contents

Bulgaria Mining Report 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Mining Sector Industry Value (2013-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Coal: Improving Outlook As Output Holds Steady 10
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Bulgaria 2013-2020) 10
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 13
Bulgaria - Risk/Reward Index 13
Rewards 13
Industry Rewards 13
Country Rewards 13
Risks 14
Industry Risks 14
Country Risks 14
Table: Bulgaria - Mineral Production Forecasts 15
Europe: Majority To Be Low Risk-Reward 15
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index 17
Regulatory Development 18
Tax Regime 18
Limited Success In Corruption Battle 19
Commodities Forecast 20
Commodities Outlook 20
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 20
Competitive Landscape 21
Table: Largest Metals and Mining Companies - Eastern Europe 22
Company Profile 24
Assarel Medet 24
Regional Overview 26
Global Industry Overview 32
Global Mining: The Five Key Themes 32
Table: Key Macroeconomic Context: Behind Key Mining Trends 33
1 Crisis And Consolidation For Producers And Traders 34
2 Capex To Focus Increasingly On Innovation 35
3 Bright Spots, Despite A Sea Of Troubles 37
Table: Select Countries - Mine Production Growth Bright Spots 37
4 Government Involvement To Increase In Key Sectors 38
Table: Select Countries - Government Involvement In Mining Sector 38
5 Africa To Remain Key Destination For Chinese and Indian Outbound Investment 39
Methodology 41
Industry Forecast Methodology 41
Sources 42
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 43
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 44

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