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China Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 81 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: This quarter we have further revised our forecasts as China's power continues to be affectednegatively by the ongoing economic slowdown in China and the government's continued efforts to tacklecoal consumption. We believe coal-fired power generation will undergo a decline over 2016 and 2017, andthen register only slight annual increases thereafter. The outlook for power consumption is similarly muted,with annual average growth rates of 3% between 2016 and 2025, as China's economy shifts away frompower-intensive manufacturing.Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- In terms of fuel mix, conventional thermal sources play a key role and are expected to continue todominate electricity generation as many projects under construction or planned will use coal or gas, andas Chinese efforts in prospecting and exploiting conventional oil and gas resources are set to increase.While other sources of power will play increasingly important roles, China will remain reliant on coal forits power generation over the next decade. China's power mix continues to evolve, in line with theslowdown in China's economy - which is curbing power consumption - and the ongoing efforts by theChinese government to tackle pollution, which is resulting in reduced coal consumption. This, coupledwith the gain in prominence of cleaner fuels, such as gas, nuclear power and renewable energy, is havinga significant impact on China's power sector. Over our forecast period, we expect coal-fired powergeneration to register just a 2% increase from 2015 to 2025, while other fuels will post much highergrowth levels - albeit from a lower base. Natural gas and nuclear power will both increase by over 300%and non-hydro renewables will more than double.

Oil power will decline as it is gradually phased out ofthe power mix over the next decade.

- China's role in regional power markets across the world will continue to expand over 2016, with bothdeveloped and developing markets targeted for investment. Chinese companies will be most active in thecoal, hydropower, nuclear and renewables equipment industries, gaining market share in these sectors.

- By the end of our forecast period in 2025, we expect nuclear capacity in China to surge from an estimated26.7 gigawatts (GW) in 2015 to over, as the mammoth pipeline of reactors that are planned, proposed orunder construction gradually comes online (see 'Nuclear Technology Footprint To Expand', April 15).This will make China one of the largest nuclear markets globally in terms of total installed capacity.

Table Of Contents

China Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (China 2015-2021) 7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 12
China Snapshot 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2015-2020) 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (China 2020-2025) 12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 12
China Power Forecast Scenario 13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019) 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025) 25
Electricity Consumption 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019) 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025) 27
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 27
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019) 29
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025) 29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2014-2019) 30
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (China 2020-2025) 30
Industry Risk/Reward Index 31
Asia Power RRI: China's Score Slipping, India Pushing Ahead 31
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 38
China Power Risk/Reward Index 39
Rewards 39
Risks 39
Market Overview 41
Key Policies And Market Structure 41
Regulation And Competition 41
Sustainable Energy Policies 43
Pricing 46
China Power Projects Database 48
Table: China - Top 10 Power Projects By Capacity 48
Competitive Landscape 50
Huaneng Power International 50
China Huaneng Group 51
China Datang Corporation 51
China Huadian Corporation 51
China Guodian Corporation 52
State Power Investment Corporation 52
China Southern Power Grid 53
State Grid Corporation 53
Company Profile 54
Huaneng Power International 54
Regional Overview 57
Asia - Asia Power: Shifting Fuel Dynamics, Coal Still King 57
13th Five-Year Plan 64
13th Five-Year Plan: Key Points 64
Summary Of Contents 64
Chapter 1: Overview 65
Table: Targets 65
Chapter 2: Innovation To Drive Development 66
Chapter 3: Economic Institutions 67
Chapter 4: Modernisation Of The Agricultural Sector 68
Chapter 5: Industries 69
Chapter 6: Expand The Network Economy 70
Chapter 7: Build A Modern Infrastructure Network 70
Chapter 8: New-Type Urbanisation 71
Chapter 9: Coordination Of Regional Development 72
Chapter 10: Environmental Protection 73
Chapter 11: Continue Opening Up 73
Others: 73
Glossary 75
Table: Glossary Of Terms 75
Methodology 76
Methodology And Sources 76
Industry Forecast Methodology 76
Sources 79
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 79
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 80
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 81

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