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Indonesia Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 57 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Despite some significant hurdles facing developers, including financing issues and projectdelays, we do expect to see continued growth in Indonesia's power sector over the coming years. Thecountry is dedicated to expanding domestic capacity, and while we do not believe existing targets areachievable in their current format, we do expect to see substantial growth in capacity and generation overthe forecast period through to 2025. Much of the focus remains on coal-fired power plants, due toIndonesia's extensive natural resources as well as the relatively low cost of development, though we arealso seeing a significant number of hydropower, geothermal and renewable power projects in the pipeline.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Indonesia saw its first cross-border electricity imports from Malaysia in May 2016. 70MW of power wastransmitted to Kalimantan, Indonesia from Malaysia under the ASEAN Power Grid project which isintended to improve access to electricity in the region. In Indonesia, the Brighter Indonesia Programestimates that half of the country's villages do not have access to electricity.

- Meanwhile Indonesia's Industry Minister Saleh Husin reported in May 2016 that the country was likelyfacing an energy crisis from 2020 and the lack of capacity was impacting upon potential investment in themanufacturing sector. As such improving electricity capacity is a priority for the government.

- A number of initiatives are underway to expand capacity and improve connections; the government hascommitted to IDR5trn (USD375mn) of spending on the Indonesia Terang project to improve electricityaccess for 10,300 villages in six eastern provinces (Papua, North Papua, Maluku, North Maluku, EastNusa Tenggara and West Nusa Tenggara) by 2019. New capacity is expected to concentrate onrenewable sources.

- We are maintaining our current forecast for 6.7% annual average growth in total electricity generationbetween 2016 and 2025 based on a generous project pipeline balanced with the frequent instances ofdelays to project implementation. Upside risks stem from a potential surge in investment as thegovernment attempts to attract more developers to the power sector in order to meet ambitious energytargets.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Indonesia Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Indonesia 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Indonesia Power Forecast Scenario 11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 11
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Non-Hydropower Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 16
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity Forecasts 18
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019) 18
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019) 20
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025) 21
Electricity Consumption 21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019) 22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025) 22
Transmission and Distribution 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Indonesia 2020-2025) 24
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
Asia Power RRI: China's Score Slipping, India Pushing Ahead 25
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 32
Indonesia Power Risk/Reward Index 33
Rewards 33
Risks 33
Market Overview 35
Key Policies And Market Structure 35
Regulation And Competition 35
Sustainable Energy Policies 36
Pricing 37
Indonesia Power Projects Database 38
Table: Indonesia - Top 10 Projects By Capacity 40
Competitive Landscape 42
Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) 42
Central Java Power 43
Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGE) 43
Regional Overview 44
Asia - Asia Power: Shifting Fuel Dynamics, Coal Still King 44
Glossary 51
Table: Glossary Of Terms 51
Methodology 52
Methodology And Sources 52
Industry Forecast Methodology 52
Sources 55
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 55
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 57

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