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  4. > Thailand Power Report Q3 2016

Thailand Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 60 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Thailand's plan to reduce its reliance on gas-fired power generation will create opportunitiesfor alternatives such as coal and renewables, which poses upside risks to our outlook for the country'senergy related infrastructure. That said, the scale of upside risk has been limited somewhat following theannouncement that EPAC has approved the construction of a new LNG import terminal at Rayong. Wehighlight that lower than expected power consumption over the near term means such opportunities willbegin to have an impact on infrastructure construction only beyond 2017-2018 as projects are delayed untildemand picks up. We retain a modest growth forecast for 2015 and 2016, with power generation set togrow by 3.0% and 3.1%, respectively.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The largest source of growth in 2016 will be thermal generation, while non-hydropower renewables willbe the fastest growing sub-sector at 11.0%. Meanwhile, the Thai power sector's long-term growth outlookis muted, as the country continues to experience challenges in procuring gas supplies and is clearlymoving towards increasing reliance on electricity imports. We see electricity generation growing at anaverage rate of 3.0% per annum between 2016-2025. Growth will be primarily driven by nonhydropowerrenewable energy generation and coal-fired generation. We see limited scope for expansionin gas-fired generation.

- Thailand's Energy Policy Administration Committee (EPAC) in Q216 approved a plan by stateownedPTT Public Company to build a 5.0mn tonne per annum (tpa) LNG import terminal atRayong. We are optimistic that the project will proceed because the new terminal will be crucial inmeeting Thailand's rising LNG needs, amid falling domestic gas production and risks to the security ofgas supply from Myanmar. The new terminal will cost THB36.8mn (USD1.06mn) and will be sited closeto the country's only existing LNG terminal at Map Ta Phut. The government may request that the newterminal be built at a higher 7.5mn tpa capacity, at an additional cost of THB1.7mn (USD0.04mn).The5.0mn tpa Map Ta Phut terminal will double in capacity from 2017.

Table Of Contents

Thailand Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Thailand 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Thailand Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Thailand 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Thailand 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Thailand Power Forecast Scenario 12
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 18
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 18
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 23
Electricity Consumption 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 24
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 25
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 25
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2014-2019) 25
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Thailand 2020-2025) 25
Transmission And Distribution 26
Industry Risk Reward Index 27
Asia Power RRI: China's Score Slipping, India Pushing Ahead 27
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 34
Thailand Power Risk/Reward Index 35
Rewards 35
Risks 35
Market Overview 36
Key Policies And Market Structure 36
Regulation And Competition 36
Sustainable Energy Policies 37
Pricing 38
Thailand Power Projects Database 39
Table: Thailand - Top Ten Projects By Capacity Type 40
Competitive Landscape 42
Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT) 43
Glow Energy 44
CLP/EGCO 44
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company (RATCH) 45
Independent Power (Thailand) 46
Regional Overview 47
Asia - Asia Power: Shifting Fuel Dynamics, Coal Still King 47
Glossary 54
Table: Glossary Of Terms 54
Methodology 55
Methodology And Sources 55
Industry Forecast Methodology 55
Sources 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 58
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 60

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