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  4. > France Metals Report Q3 2014

France Metals Report Q3 2014

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 48 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: France's metals sector is set for very modest growth and, in some cases, decline, as major producers hold back on investment. Steel will continue to dominate the country's metals industry, but we do not expect any significant new investment. ArcelorMittal and Rio Tinto, the two largest producers in the country, are facing an increasingly hostile and competitive operating environment, with steel still cheap on a relative basis and aluminium being exported from China. We therefore do not expect France to return to pre-2008 rates of production or consumption before the end of our forecast period to 2018. The relatively strong performance the French steel industry enjoyed in H113 dissipated in the second half of last year as it struggled with an increasingly sluggish domestic manufacturing sector and an equally listless European scenario. Uncertainty surrounds the future of ArcelorMittal's Florange steel mill, which has turned into an increasingly fraught political dispute. By 2013 a deal by the government to save the plant from closure with a five-year investment programme appeared to have failed due to technical difficulties, but it seemed unlikely the government would carry through with its threat to nationalise the facility.

Table Of Contents

France Metals Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT ..... 9
Metals SWOT ...... 9
Industry Forecast ..... 11
Steel: Weak Growth Outlook As Economy Stalls . 11
Demand: Muted Outlook For Infrastructure And Autos .... 12
Table: Steel Production and Consumption (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (France 2010-2018) . . 13
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (France 2005-2012) . . 13
Commodities Forecast ... 15
Steel Price Forecast .. 15
Table: BMI Steel Forecast 15
Short-Term Outlook . 15
Core View 16
Global Steel Glut To Persist ..... 16
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term . 17
Consumption: Growth Decelerating .. 19
Excessive Chinese Exports 20
Growing Arbitrage Between East and West . 21
Risks To Price Outlook ..... 21
Table: Steel Data and Forecasts . . 22
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region and Product, US$/tonne (ave) 22
Monthly Metals Update ...... 23
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer .... 24
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices ..... 26
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214 ... 27
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed 28
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds . 29
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214 30
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks . 32
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 34
Competitive Landscape .. 35
Table: Metals Industry - Key Facilities . 35
Table: Largest Listed European Listed Metals Producers 36
Company Profile 38
Rio Tinto ... 38
Company Overview . 40
Company Strategy ... 41
Latest Financial Results ... 42
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data . . 43
ArcelorMittal .... 43
Company Overview . 45
Company Strategy ... 45
Latest Financial Results ... 47
Company Details .... 47
Financial Data 47
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data . 47
Methodology ...... 48
Cross Checks .. 48

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